Hendrik Yaputra, Jakarta – President Prabowo Subianto's electability has plummeted over the past year, down to only 9.8 percent per October 2026, according to a semi-open simulation survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC).

"[The electability] plunged from 34.9 percent in November 2025 to merely 9.8 percent in October 2026," said SMRC Executive Director Deni Irvani in an official release on Saturday, October 17, 2026.

The findings are based on SRMC's 'Prabowo's Presidential Electability' survey that ran from October 1-10, 2026, involving a total of 1,213 respondents.

Who's leading?

With 24 names featured in the survey, the leading candidate is incumbent West Java leader Dedi Mulyadi, with 35.5 percent. This is followed by former presidential candidate Anies Baswedan (10.3 percent), Prabowo Subianto (9.8 percent), and VP Gibran Rakabuming Raka (8.4 percent).

Other names received support below 6 percent, with 13.9 percent undecided.

Prabowo and Dedi have switched up some time in the past year, according to the survey. In November 2025, Prabowo was leading with 34.9 percent, while Dedi Mulyadi had 19.7 percent. In February-March 2026, Prabowo was still at 33.3 percent, but that changed in July, when he received 14.5 percent support, and again with 9.8 percent in October.

On the other hand, Dedi Mulyadi's electability is on a positive trajectory, rising to 35.5 percent the past year.

A similar pattern is observed with a two-name simulation, with Dedi Mulyadi receiving 69.3 percent, far ahead of Prabowo, who only managed 18.8 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

A notable reverse is detected in the last seven months. Prabowo was still leading in the February-March 2026 survey with 50.5 percent support, while Dedi Mulyadi had 42.6 percent. From July 2026, the situation flipped: Dedi rose to 59 percent, while Prabowo dropped to 28.3 percent. In the October 2026 survey, Dedi Mulyadi secured 69.3 percent, while Prabowo only received 18.8 percent.

"In seven months, support for Prabowo in the two-name simulation dropped nearly 32 points, while Dedi Mulyadi rose nearly 27 points," said Deni.

Weak support from party voters

Weak support for Prabowo is evident among party voters, including those who previously backed him during the last election, such as Gerindra, Golkar, PAN, and PKB.

Only 20 percent of Gerindra voters would choose Prabowo in the semi-open simulation, while 74 percent opted for other candidates. Among Golkar voters, only 17 percent picked Prabowo, PAN 8 percent, PKB 4 percent, NasDem 11 percent, Democrats 6 percent, PDIP 6 percent, and PKS 2 percent.

On the other hand, SMRC also surveyed two other names outside Dedi Mulyadi against Prabowo, namely Gibran Rakabuming Raka, and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY).

Gibran is included due to his post as vice president and strong ties with PSI. Meanwhile, AHY is the chair of the Democratic Party. "Therefore, this three-name simulation is relevant to examine Prabowo's electability strength when Dedi Mulyadi is out of the picture," he said.

The results showed that Gibran received 29.7 percent, AHY 28.2 percent, and Prabowo 22.7 percent, with 19.4 percent undecided.

According to Deni, Prabowo's electability does not improve even when Dedi is excluded. "Dedi's votes seem to have been more drawn to Gibran and AHY than to Prabowo. Support for Prabowo as the incumbent is extremely weak, if the presidential election were held now," he noted.

Why Prabowo's electability plunges

The SMRC head Deni believes that Prabowo's performance as president thus far is behind the downward projection of his electability. Other factors include macroeconomic-political conditions and law enforcement. "The situation is perceived negatively by the public, with the government's performance on pressing issues being poor, along with negative assessments of the free meal and village cooperative programs," Deni stated.

This survey was conducted among all eligible voters in Indonesia, meaning those who are 17 years old or older, or are married at the time of the survey. The population was divided into two groups (subpopulations).

In the cellphone-owning subpopulation, a sample of 1,013 people was randomly selected using a double sampling method, and respondents were interviewed by phone.

Meanwhile, in the subpopulation without cellphones, a sample of 200 people was randomly selected using the stratified multistage random sampling method, and respondents were interviewed face to face. A total of 1,213 respondents were interviewed. The margin of error for the survey is estimated at +/- 2.9 percent at a confidence level of 95 percent, assuming simple random sampling.

Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2121779/prabowos-electability-plummets-who-leads-in-smrcs-surve