Dian Rahma Fika Alnina, Jakarta – The latest survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) recorded that the percentage of people who believe Indonesia is heading in the right direction is now at 47.7 percent.
This percentage has plummeted by 35 percent compared to when President Prabowo Subianto and Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka were inaugurated in October 2024. At that time, public sentiment regarding the country's direction being correct reached 83 percent.
The national survey conducted from October 1 to 10, 2026, involving 1,200 respondents, found that 34.3 percent of the public believes the country is moving in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, the remaining 18 percent expressed that they could not answer or were uncertain.
The founder of SMRC, Saiful Mujani, stated that the drop in positive public perception below the 50 percent threshold is a serious warning for the legitimacy of the state officials. "This is a very important psychological issue. We must have support for the existence of our state and its implementation above 50 percent, because this is a very fundamental matter," said Saiful during the SMRC TV Political Review program released on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Saiful allowed Tempo to quote his explanation.
According to this political science professor from Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta, public optimism regarding Prabowo's government direction reached its lowest record in the second year since the direct presidential elections era. By comparison, Saiful noted that in the mid-term of the second presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (October 2010), this optimism figure was still at the 70 percent level.
The SMRC survey examined that the decline in positive public sentiment is strongly correlated with negative evaluations of the president's performance and deteriorating macro indicators. SMRC data shows that 68 percent of respondents who are dissatisfied with President Prabowo's performance automatically view Indonesia as moving in the wrong direction. A similar trend was recorded among groups perceiving the current economic, political, and law enforcement conditions as poor.
"So it is very clear that there is a significant relationship between the evaluation of Prabowo's performance and the opinion or assessment that we are moving in the right or wrong direction. So the key source of this is the president's performance," Saiful said.
Additionally, negative sentiment is not only rooted at the grassroots level but has also spread to local government ranks. SMRC noted protests from several local governments regarding the centralization of power and the lack of central budget allocations to regions.
This aligns with the impact of the budget cut policy implemented by Prabowo since 2025 to fund priority programs such as free nutritious meal programs and the Red and White village cooperatives. "Now the fiscal situation is non-existent. We no longer have money to operate. What exists has been allocated to various programs that cannot be changed," he said.
He also highlighted the issue of a budget deficit that is claimed to have exceeded safe limits and discussions on the removal of fuel subsidies that increasingly burden the public. In response to a chain of dissatisfaction that triggers public apathy towards governance, Saiful urged President Prabowo to take immediate corrective action.
He believes that the current disappointment has become widespread, even reaching the president's voter base. "Now those who chose the President are also saying this government is chaotic. Indonesia is now on the brink, moving in the wrong direction," Saiful asserted.
Saiful emphasized that the government must not underestimate this declining sentiment before it accumulates into a larger wave of rejection. "This is a very serious warning. If this drops further, it will be dangerous; you (the President) are ultimately responsible for the disintegration of this state," he said.
Spokesperson of the ruling party Gerindra, Bahtra Banong, stated that they will study the findings of the SMRC survey before giving a response. "I will examine the survey results first," said the Deputy Chair of Commission II of the House of Representatives when contacted on Tuesday.
Tempo attempted to seek a government response through the Minister of State Secretary regarding the SMRC findings. Similar questions were also sent to Gerindra Party Spokesperson Sugiat Santoso. However, Prasetyo and Sugiat have not yet responded to the messages sent to their WhatsApp numbers.
Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2121516/survey-shows-public-optimism-in-prabowo-govt-drops-below-50-pc