Carlos K.Y. Paath, Jakarta – Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has the strongest electability among potential presidential hopefuls but no one has emerged as a dominant figure to suggest that the race remains open, according to a survey released on Monday.
Prabowo, who is also chairman of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), gets 22.5 percent of respondent approvals in a survey by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (Indonesia Survey Institute) or LSI.
Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo is at a distant second with 10.6 percent, followed by Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan with 10.2 percent, according to the survey.
"We still have no dominant figures at the meantime. There's a chance that the 2024 presidential election will involve more than two candidates, maybe three," LSI executive director Djayadi Hanan said in a video conference.
"In this situation, a candidate must have electability of 40 percent to emerge as a leading candidate and we see none right now," he said.
In the last two presidential elections, Indonesian voters had to choose between Prabowo and Joko Widodo – the latter ultimately won both.
When respondents were provided with a list of ten names, Prabowo continued to have an edge over other candidates. In this scenario, his electability rises to 26 percent, while Ganjar and Anies both get 15.4 percent and 13.3 percent, respectively.
Several other prominent figures also surfaced in the survey despite having electability below 10 percent. They include Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno, West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil and Social Affairs Minister Tri Rismaharini.
According to the country's election law, a political party must have at least a 20 percent share of the House of Representatives seats to nominate a candidate, meaning that no party can propose their candidate independently.
The ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has just above 19 percent of House seats so it must form a coalition with another party to meet the threshold.
According to the same survey, the PDI-P remains the most-favored party among voters. If legislative election was held today, the ruling party will get 20.1 percent of the votes, while Prabowo's Gerindra would be trailing behind with 11 percent, Djayadi said.