Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) sprang a surprise in the final hours of candidate registration for the Jakarta gubernatorial election, choosing Pramono Anung over heavy favorites Anies Baswedan and Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama. The move is seen as opening space for reconciliation between PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri and President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo.
The PDI-P secured the right to nominate a gubernatorial candidate of its own after the Constitutional Court lowered the threshold to contest regional head elections in a ruling that brought democracy back to life. The PDI-P will fight political parties grouped under the coalition in support of Prabowo Subiantor's incoming administration.
Even though Jokowi still holds a PDI-P membership card, his family, such as his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka and son-in-law Bobby Nasution, are no longer PDI-P members. While Gibran is currently with no party and closely connected to the Golkar Party, Bobby has become a Gerindra Party politician.
As Jokowi leans his preference toward the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM), Prabowo's main supporter, Ridwan Kamil, former West Java governor, won unanimous support from the camp to run in Jakarta. Ridwan has consistently taken the third-favorite position in recent polls, behind Anies in the lead and Ahok coming in second.
This left the PDI-P with at least two strong candidates, Anies and Ahok.
While closely connected to Anies, who was governor of Jakarta from 2017 to 2022 and is well-known as an opponent of the current regime, the PDI-P had its own members, including Ahok (governor from 2014 to 2017), who is popular among Jakarta voters.
As it turned out, Mega preferred Pramono who never featured in any survey. Pramono is President Jokowi's cabinet secretary, holding the post since 2015. He was also Megawati's right-hand man when he held the PDI-P's secretary-general post from 2005 to 2010, placing him in a strategic position between Jokowi and Megawati.
Pramono has an opportunistic communication style leading him to several important positions in the executive, as well as legislative seats, including his involvement in preventing the House of Representatives leadership split when his party and its coalition initiated a breakaway House speakership in 2014.
During the current transitional period between Jokowi and Prabowo, Pramono has played an important role in easing the power shift by inviting Prabowo to every important meeting attended by Jokowi.
Pramono's slick negotiation ability is considered more valuable than Ahok's high electability in Jakarta as the PDI-P is still working on its future stance toward the incoming government. On the other hand, Ahok, who actively attacked Jokowi during the recent elections would be considered too confrontational to the regime.
The PDI-P intends to retain its influence in the government, which will be difficult to achieve if it is too distant from the power centered around Prabowo and Jokowi. On the other hand, Jokowi also needs a political vehicle after his presidency is up this October, anticipating potential resistance from Prabowo's government in the future.
What we've heard
Pramono and Rano Karno plan to involve a non-party figure to lead their campaign team. An internal source from the PDI-P said a non-party figure was needed because the image of Pramono and Rano as PDI-P cadres was too strong and could potentially create resistance among voters who disliked political parties. "The name will be a surprise," said the source.
Pramono is also in communication with Anies' team. After meeting accidentally during Car Free Day, the source mentioned that they planned to schedule a follow-up meeting. According to the source, Anies and Pramono have known each other since their university days. "Their network of activism has kept them close," the source said.
Ridwan, on the other hand, is trying to become closer to the people of Jakarta, with plans to change his residency status from Bandung to Jakarta. A source close to Ridwan said the former West Java governor was trying to approach The Jakmania, the supporter group of the Persija Jakarta soccer club.
However, the Persija supporter group asked Ridwan to meet with the club's management first before meeting with the supporter group. So far, according to the source, the meeting has not materialized. "Supporters depend on the club, so it would be more appropriate to meet with Persija," he said.