Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – The wily Indonesian parliamentary Speaker, Mr Akbar Tandjung, may yet manage to outmanoeuvre MPs petitioning to oust him from his post following his graft conviction this month.
On Tuesday, when he chaired the first plenary session of Parliament since he was convicted, several politicians jeered and ridiculed him, refusing to allow proceedings to go on until their motion seeking his ouster was read out.
When he refused, the legislators staged a walk-out, leading to some speculation that the controversial Golkar leader would not be able to lead Parliament for long.
Ever since he was found guilty of misusing 40 billion rupiah worth of state funds and sentenced to three years' jail, he has been fending off demands that he resign or at least step aside, pending an appeal.
But he has stoutly maintained that the verdict is not yet legally binding. And his argument could well prevail in Parliament. Even National Assembly Speaker Amien Rais, who is seen as Mr Akbar's potential rival in the 2004 presidential elections, was forced to say yesterday that Mr Akbar's position was very "safe".
Calling on Parliament not to waste time debating the issue, he pointed out that after a week of campaigning only 72 out of 500 legislators had backed the petition.
Earlier, he had said that the petition would be accorded serious attention by the House if the list contained more than 150 signatures. "It was shown that the vote of no confidence was waged only half-heartedly," he said, referring to Tuesday's parliamentary proceedings.
Other observers also agree that the calls for Mr Akbar's removal come from a small minority. "They are just letting off a bit of steam," said one Western analyst, who said it helped a party's image to be seen to be moving against Golkar, the party of former president Suharto.
The two largest parties, Mr Akbar's Golkar and President Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-P, have showed no signs of supporting the motion. The PDI-P is unlikely to support the push for Mr Akbar's removal as the Golkar is its major political ally, pointed out analyst Kusnanto Anggoro, adding "they are going to support Akbar in order to avoid retaliation".
If pushed into a corner, it is believed that Golkar could, for example, threaten to expose corruption within the PDI-P. Agreeing that an association with Mr Akbar could tarnish a party's reputation, he said: "It will be damaging for PDI-P and Golkar to keep Mr Akbar, but the question is do they realise this? And this is a difficult question to answer."
Other observers said that the PDI-P was well aware that it would be better for the Golkar to drop Mr Akbar now in order to clean up their public image ahead of the 2004 elections. But, they said, the PDI-P was backing him precisely because of the belief that this would lead to an electoral advantage over Golkar.