When it comes to political maneuvering, Joko Widodo is adept at choosing his timing. He always calculates when a message should be delivered to the public. Jokowi granted this magazine an exclusive interview on August 11, 2026, a month after President Prabowo Subianto called critical journalists "Londo ireng," a label for traitors during the colonial era.
The gesture effectively sent a message to Prabowo. After claiming for months that he had difficulty communicating with Prabowo, Jokowi secured a seat right beside the President during the Independence Day celebration at the State Palace on August 17, 2026. Jokowi and his son, Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, flanked Prabowo at the center of the festivities. Gibran was temporarily no longer kept away from the President's seat, as he had been during a cabinet meeting a month earlier.
As a politician intent on having a hand in power, Jokowi wants his son to run alongside Prabowo again in the 2029 presidential election. Prabowo, meanwhile, has kept his distance from Gibran partly because of Jokowi's poor image as a destroyer of the Constitution when he forced his son into the 2024 election in violation of the law. Prabowo also rarely involves Gibran in important decision-making and has not even given him sufficient funds to carry out his duties as vice president.
If the Jokowi-Prabowo alliance continues, Indonesian politics will once again be stained by dirty tactics for gaining power. As the ruler, Prabowo could do what Jokowi once did: deploy state resources to win elections. Conversely, Jokowi's popularity among the lower-middle class could mask the decline in Prabowo's electability caused by his reckless policies.
The rift between Jokowi and Prabowo should therefore produce more natural competition. Jokowi's break with Prabowo could also serve as a brake on the government's wayward actions. With the military and nearly all political parties behind him, Prabowo has practically stopped listening to the public. He responds to civil society criticism with hostility and agitation.
The rift could also divide resources in the next election. It is an open secret that an incumbent presidential candidate has access to state facilities that can be used as electoral tools. Jokowi, with his considerable influence, could counterbalance that dominance. Political parties that have sought safety by following Prabowo could be tempted to change course.
But Jokowi has no noble political instincts. His political calculations are solely about power. His political path is not guided by democracy, justice, or the public good. His political maneuvers through grassroots voter bases and by courting village government associations, for example, are aimed solely at helping the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), led by his youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, secure enough votes to enter the House of Representatives. Village heads are now distressed because the Prabowo administration has diverted village funds to build red-and-white cooperatives.
Civil society can seize the opportunity presented by the rift between the two to consolidate. For a long time, these groups have nearly exhausted their energy trying to counterbalance Prabowo's excessive policies that harm the public, amid waves of intimidation and criminalization.
Indonesia is far too large to be entrusted to just two political figures. The damage inflicted by Jokowi and Prabowo over more than a decade has undermined the Republic's political and economic order. The extent of the damage can be minimized by allowing healthy competition between the two to play out. A rift among the elites could give rise to checks and balances.
– Read the complete story in Tempo English Magazine
Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2118198/prabowo-jokowi-a-fracturing-bon