Alfitria Nefi P, Jakarta – Economist from the Indonesian Political Economy Association (AEPI), Khudori, confirmed that rice production in the past few months has experienced a surplus compared to the previous year.
However, Khudori disagreed with President Prabowo Subianto's decision to use the current situation as a justification for exporting rice.
"The situation would still be highly risky if Indonesia rashly exports rice to Malaysia or other countries," said Khudori when contacted on Saturday, April 26, 2025.
While Indonesia has seen a rise in rice harvests over the past three to four months, Khudori pointed out that the surplus was largely due to the festive season.
"Around August and beyond, the production will decline," he said.
Khudori emphasized that the government should evaluate annual production comprehensively, rather than making conclusions based on seasonal surpluses, such as those typically occurring from February to May when production reaches about 60-65 percent of the yearly total.
He also warned that rice production is likely to drop two to three months before the New Year as the dry season sets in.
In his view, the current surplus should be reserved to meet domestic needs during the upcoming low-production period.
If exports proceed, Khudori added, Indonesia may face difficulties in setting competitive prices, as domestic rice remains more expensive than international prices.
"For decades, the price of rice in Indonesia has never been cheaper than the price in the world market," he said.
Khudori projected this year's rice production could reach around 32 million tons, an improvement from 30.62 million tons previously. He attributed the increase to favorable weather, as well as sufficient human resources and funding. Nonetheless, he cautioned against overestimating the boost.
"It's irrational and excessive if production doesn't increase. And even if it does, how much is the increase?" said Khudori.
Earlier, President Prabowo Subianto had authorized the Ministry of Agriculture and the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment to begin exporting rice to other countries.
"I allow and instruct to send rice to them (other countries)," Prabowo announced during the "Indonesia Menanam" (Indonesia Planting) event initiated by Ustadz Adi Hidayat in Sungai Pinang Village, Banyuasin Regency, South Sumatra, on Wednesday, April 23, 2025.
Prabowo explained that the decision came after receiving reports from both ministries regarding international requests for Indonesian rice, given the surplus. He stressed that the exports should be motivated by humanitarian reasons rather than economic gains.
"The most important thing is that the production cost, transportation, and administration can be covered," said Prabowo.
He added that this move would demonstrate Indonesia's growing self-reliance and ability to assist other nations.
"Let's prove, Indonesia is now a nation that doesn't beg but can help and give to other nations," Prabowo said.
– Yuni Rohmawati contributed to the writing of this article.