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Nasdem reprimands pollster for 'unrealistically' underrating Anies Baswedan

Jakarta Globe - October 9, 2023

Medan – The National Democratic Party (Nasdem)) on Monday threatened to sue a political survey agency after a recent poll in North Sumatra indicated a drastic drop in the electability of the party's presidential nominee, Anies Baswedan.

The poll, conducted by the Indonesian Circle Survey (LSI) in the province, revealed that only 5 percent of respondents expressed their intention to vote for Anies. This level of support was considerably lower than that received by the two main contenders, Ganjar Pranowo (65 percent) and Prabowo Subianto (35 percent).

In May, a previous survey by the same pollster indicated that Anies had received 32.6 percent of the votes in North Sumatra. Such a drastic drop is statistically unrealistic, according to Iskandar ST, chairman of Nasdem's North Sumatra chapter.

"It implies an average drop of 7 percentage points every month – something unprecedented in the history of political surveys," Iskandar was quoted by the Kompas news website as saying.

Iskandar further pointed out that the survey results were presented as whole numbers without decimals, raising further suspicions. He also argued that Nasdem's research indicated that Anies would emerge victorious in all 20 regencies and cities in North Sumatra.

During a press conference held at Nasdem's provincial office in Medan, Iskandar, accompanied by numerous lawyers, demanded that LSI disclose its survey methodology, interview samples, the number of respondents, and its sources of funding.

"Transparency regarding financial sources is crucial because those who finance the survey could potentially influence the results," Iskandar said.

LSI, founded by veteran researcher Denny Januar Ali, has been given one week to meet these demands. Failure to comply would prompt Nasdem to file civil and criminal lawsuits against the organization, Iskandar said.Last week, LSI released the results of presidential surveys in the country's five largest provinces, including North Sumatra. While Anies ranked at the bottom in a hypothetical race involving three contenders in all five provinces, his performance in North Sumatra was particularly poor.

In response to Nasdem's allegations, LSI researcher Adjie Alfaraby, in Jakarta, asserted that the survey had been conducted transparently and professionally, involving 1,200 respondents from the five provinces combined. He also suggested that if Nasdem had concerns about LSI's credibility, they could refer to surveys conducted by other agencies.

Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/news/nasdem-reprimands-pollster-for-unrealistically-underrating-anies-basweda