Markus Junianto Sihaloho – Allegations made by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono that an Army officer had urged people against voting for a candidate whose name began with "S," could harm Yudhoyono's relationship with the Indonesian Armed Forces, or TNI, military analysts said on Sunday.

The off-the-cuff comment was made during a speech to members of the TNI and National Police at the State Palace about the importance of the security forces remaining neutral during the upcoming elections. It is unclear if Yudhoyono was referring to himself or fellow presidential candidates Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, former Jakarta governor, Gen. Sutiyoso or former Navy chief Slamet Soebijanto.

Andi Widjajanto, a lecturer at the School of Social and Political Science at the University of Indonesia, said that not only could the allegation trigger confusion, distrust and disharmony among Army officers but that it could cast doubt on the ability of TNI Chief Gen. Djoko Santoso to do his job.

Andi said Yudhoyono should have taken heed from 2002, when former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid intervened in the Army's internal affairs by supporting a reformist faction within the Army.

He said the Bulak Rantai incident, where an Army faction led by the late Lt. Gen. Agus Wirahadikusumah met with a group of Gus Dur insiders, triggered protests from other military commanders, who threatened to resign from the military.

"It is the same situation because military officers are confused by Yudhoyono's statement and it is dangerous because Army history shows that most of its officers are easily divided by opposing political interests," Andi said.

Andi said the allegation was triggered by Yudhoyono's "anxiety" that the TNI's structure would be used by his political opponents, especially those with military backgrounds.

He referred to retired Lt. Gen, Muhammad Yasin's admittance that he and several active high-ranking Army officers had supported Yudhoyono during the 2004 presidential elections through a "mass organization," called Barisan Nasional.

However, after Yasin was overlooked as a replacement minister of home affairs in August 2007, a disappointed Yasin formed a new party, the Functional Party of Struggle, or Pakar Pangan, he said.

"[Yudhoyono] is afraid his enemies would use the same tactics used against him in the past," Andi said, adding that Yudhoyono knew how the military structure could be effectively used to win a political race. "Maybe he was afraid of his karma."

Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Christian Zebua on Sunday denied that Army officers would be confused about Yudhoyono's statement, saying that any Army officers were tied to its command chain.

"So if the Army chief has barred us from playing an active role in politics, then every soldier must follow. There will be no internal conflict, our solidarity will not be influenced by any unclear issues."

Zebua said the Army chief Djoko had warned that every soldier, even high-ranking generals, would be punished for breaching any of the political neutrality codes.

Adreas Pareira, a legislator from the House of Representatives Commission I overseeing defense and a member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, said that Yudhoyono's statement demonstrated that he was concerned about the number of retired military officers running in the upcoming elections. "He is in a panic right now," Andreas said.

However, Anas Urbaningrum, a Democratic Party spokesman, denied Yudhoyono's statement was a political maneuver, adding that it should be perceived as a warning for the military to refrain from becoming involved in the political process.