Shefali Rekhi, Indonesia's – immediate future is gloomy, if former president Abdurrahman Wahid's forecast is anything to go by.

He hinted at the possibility of a coup d'etat and economic instability, advising investors to stay away till the situation has stabilised. Yet he held hope that once the elections were over, Indonesia will pull through.

Mr Abdurrahman was delivering a talk here yesterday at a seminar jointly organised by the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies and The Straits Times.

The Nation Awakening Party leader, popularly known as Gus Dur, said the uncertainty could last up to three months – till the run-off in September this year, which the top two winners of the July 5 presidential elections will contest.

None of the five presidential contenders has a chance of getting a clear majority in the forthcoming round, he said, adding that he believed they could find it difficult to get even a fifth of the votes.

"My supporters have disclosed to me two facts. People are refraining from electing Megawati Sukarnoputri, Hamzah Haz or Amien Rais. I have been given another report that people will not vote for leaders of military origin," he added, in a reference to former military generals Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Wiranto. These five are the key candidates in the presidential elections.

This kind of a situation could be "frightening" but it was a possibility, he told the audience, which included academics, students and business leaders. This could also lead to a slowdown of the economic growth rate, he noted.

Indonesia's first-ever direct presidential polls are spread over three phases. The period has been marked by a slowdown in investments. Financial analysts and economic experts believe the current phase is likely to continue till there is a clear indication of greater political stability.

Gus Dur seemed to back that view. "The most important thing is that we have to defer everything, defer investment, defer reforms, for at least three months," he said. "In three months, we will have a second round of election and things could be more clear." Till then, he said, his "advice" to people was "to be careful and not take any decision".

Yet, at no stage did he think that the current "crisis" would get out of hand. Gus Dur told the audience that, if need be, the army could take control of the situation. "If necessary, we will have to opt for the coup d'etat by the army." In the course of his talk, he mentioned that the army had maintained its neutrality in the elections. Not only that, it had also issued statements urging candidates to refrain from using military-owned vehicles for political campaigning.

Spelling out his own "aims" if he had been given a chance to become president, Mr Abdurrahman said Indonesia had to strive for more democratisation and globalisation, increase its per capita income and become a leader in the Islamic world. "We will sort out our problems," he said. "I am optimistic ... the nation will rise to the challenge."