The insistence of House Speaker Akbar Tanjung on retaining his position in Golkar and in the House is likely to provoke post-power syndrome groups to continue to radicalize the anti Megawati-Hamzah movement.
Maneuvers to sideline Tanjung are in high gear again following the High Court decision to uphold the Central Jakarta District Court's September 2002 decision to sentence Tanjung to three years in prison for corruption.
Instead of getting law enforcement back on track, the verdict – and Tanjung's refusal to step down until the Supreme Court rules on a new appeal – has created more legal confusion and strengthened the process of polarization in Golkar party as well as in the parliament.
Deputy House Speaker Muhaimin Iskandar, from the National Awakening Party (PKB), admitted there was no legal reason to force Tanjung to stand down. "There is no ruling that can force Akbar to stay out of office except the will of the majority in the House."
Tanjung was elected House Speaker by a majority vote at the 1999 general session of the National Assembly, with the support of Golkar and the Islamic-based parties grouped under the Central Axis.
Megawati's party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), PKB and some small Muslim parties threw their weight behind PDI-P veteran Sutardjo Surjoguritno in the race.
The political map has now changed. Megawati as President and chairwoman of PDI-P is believed to want Tanjung to retain his position in Golkar and the parliament. The Muslim-based parties united under the Reform Faction, consisting of Amien Rais' National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Justice Party (PK) are urging Tanjung to step down.
The small Nationhood Faction led by Sutradara Gintings, which has voted with PDI-P throughout the term of the current parliament, has also closed ranks with the anti-Tanjung faction in the House.
This is inadequate to throw Tanjung out, or force him into suspension. There is no unity among PDI-P members on the Tanjung issue.
The most outspoken PDI-P legislators who openly support the removal Tanjung are Dwi Latifa, Haryanto Taslam and Julius Usman, but they are a relatively lonely group. At this stage there is little chance that Tanjung would not survive another vote from the floor. In the first test, PDI-P officially abstained. PKB was left to spearhead what turned into a forlorn protest.
The internal friction within Golkar is apparently more crucial to Tanjung's survival, as his insistence on retaining his chairmanship can be read as bad news for the Suharto and Habibie cronies who want to revive Golkar as a vehicle for their return to power.
Political 'provocateurs' stir emotions
A government source told Laksamana.Net that in the cabinet meeting Monday, at least three former government officials were mentioned as those allegedly masterminding the anti-Megawati demonstrations.
They are former Armed Forces Commander Wiranto, Former Finance Minister Fuad Bawazier and former Cooperatives Minister Adi Sasono.
In terms of the political constellation in Golkar, all three have a common interest in controlling Golkar as their vehicle in the 2004 general election. Akbar Tanjung is seen as an obstruction to their political agenda.
Soon after the original court decision to sentence Akbar to three years in jail, Fuad Bawazier tried to launch a political guerilla action by trying to enlist pro-Tanjung groups from the alumni of the Muslim Student Association (HMI) faction in Golkar to take sides with Amien Rais and support the overthrow of Tanjung.
Adi Sasono's approach was different. His rivalry with the Tanjung faction in Golkar dates back to 1999, just a few months prior to the general election. When Sasono realized that the pro-Habibie faction in Golkar was less powerful than Tanjung's, and had failed to articulate his own agenda through Golkar, he quit from Golkar and built his own party, the People Democratic Party (PDR).
PDR fronted the poll as a party of the poor, but proved to have no political base. Some analysts believe his alleged role in masterminding the demonstrating students against the incumbent government is an act of revenge.
But Tjahyadi Budiman, an activist from the Indonesian National Student Movement (GMNI), told Laksamana.Net that Adi Sasono and his political operators have been consolidating their forces in Bandung, especially among his supporters at the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB).
Wiranto's role in the 1999 poll was to support Tanjung against his superior, former Armed Forces Commander and Defense Minister Gen. Edi Sudrajat.
In doing so, he was seen as continuing to align himself with B.J. Habibie, and fell from grace along with the former President and lost his grip on Golkar. Still confident that he can become president, it has also been in his interests to boost the level of political tension.