Julia Lau and Yanuar Nugroho – Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's decision to replace just one minister for now, instead of taking a bolder step to weed out inefficiency and incompetence, is disappointing and potentially costly in the face of rising public anger against his administration and expectations of election promises.
Indonesia's eighth president, Prabowo Subianto, has already made history by being its first democratically elected president to face widespread student demonstrations just months into office. Most report cards for his administration have been mixed; the next few months are not looking bright. From 17 February, demonstrators have filled the streets in several cities rejecting "the status quo". There has even been sporadic street fighting between protesters and the authorities.
The causes of dissatisfaction are multi-faceted. Student demonstrators are primarily driven by anger against the government, especially at Prabowo's predecessor, Joko Widodo, whom they think should be brought to trial for "destroying democracy and the constitution". People are also frustrated with rising costs, particularly the difficulty of securing one's education, employment, and healthcare. The protesters have issued a list of "13 Demands"; the movement's hashtag #IndonesiaGelap (Dark Indonesia) has gone viral. On 21 February, protests erupted simultaneously in Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi, involving students, workers, activists, and even ibu-ibu (housewives) upset with difficulties in purchasing household cooking gas.
Another source of upset is the government's austerity drive, which aims to trim 306 trillion rupiah (about US$18.7 billion) from the state budget. The cuts have created unintended consequences – such as lower-ranking civil servants working without adequate electricity, even insufficient toilet paper – and disrupted government services due to layoffs of consultants and workers like railroad crossing guards and sluice guards, which endangers the public. The cuts have led universities to increase tuition fees and withhold performance bonuses or overdue salaries from university lecturers. In Papua, schoolchildren reject "free nutritious meals" from the government, Prabowo's flagship programme, demanding free education instead. The free meals programme has been criticised for its design flaws, including uncertainty about whether the meals are adequately nutritious and operating in a one-size-fits-all rather than targeted manner. Its early rollout was marred by logistical problems, including cases of food poisoning among some schoolchildren.
Against this backdrop, the new administration's sometimes self-congratulatory tone and a few tone-deaf announcements, like declaring Indonesia wishes to have an aircraft carrier, suggest that the president and his team need to improve their public messaging. A 29 January 2025 Cabinet Secretariat post cited Prabowo declaring to his Cabinet that, "Within three months, we have delivered our results to the people." However, two weeks prior, the president had asked the people to be "patient" and await results in a few more months.
Cabinet competency has also come to the fore. In early February, the vice chairman of Prabowo's party, Gerindra, gave assurance that Prabowo would not reshuffle his Cabinet so soon. After weeks of circulating chatter about which ministers deserved to be reshuffled, in late January, Prabowo was rumoured to be considering a first reshuffle to push out under-performers or those who had blundered. This "bloated" Cabinet, the largest in Indonesia's history, has expectedly suffered some inefficiency, miscoordination, poor policy communication, and under-delivery, but Prabowo's appointment of loyalists over technocrats and professionals in some key positions has exacerbated an operationally messy transition.
Among the ministers rumoured to be on the chopping block were Bahlil Lahadalia, Budi Arie Setiadi, and Natalius Pigai; all had been criticised for poor decisions or lack of action. For now, they remain safe, with Bahlil even boasting that all Golkar ministers would not be replaced. Prabowo's decision to keep them on board seems puzzling unless one notes that Bahlil is a known Widodo loyalist.
In the end, the president's first cabinet adjustment on 19 February involved one dismissal – under perplexing circumstances. The firing of Satryo Brodjonegoro, who held the higher education, science, and technology (MOHEST) portfolio, could be interpreted as confirmation that Prabowo takes seriously governance issues that affected the ministry, including allegations of Satryo abusing his position by abruptly dismissing a junior official.
From a different perspective, he was a professional whose firing will not cost Prabowo politically. Satryo had attempted to reform MOHEST: he recruited three directors general, a secretary general, and an inspector general, all with proven track records. He prepared a blueprint for flagship programmes like "Garuda Schools" and the advancement of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), announcing that MOHEST would be instrumental in achieving the president's priorities. Satryo had had a good track record and served as director general of higher education during Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's administration. Many had hoped he would improve the higher education and research ecosystem.
Satryo's replacement is Brian Yuliarto, 49, a career academic trained at the University of Tokyo in quantum engineering and system science. Yuliarto is a professor in nanotechnology at the Institute of Technology in Bandung (ITB), a known powerhouse in Indonesian academia, and visiting professor at Japan's Tsukuba University. Given that his main managerial experience has been as a dean at ITB, some doubt he can handle a ministry. Yet, his appointment may be seen as a sign of the increasing influence of two common-cause entities within Prabowo's coalition: the mass Islamic organisation Muhammadiyah and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Yuliarto headed the diaspora club of PKS affiliates in Japan while he was studying there. Interestingly, PKS has denied that he is its cadre or nominee.
The thread of political allegiance in Prabowo's cabinet composition begs the question: has the new president effectively established power vis-a-vis his predecessor?
The president's harshest critics have pointed to "chaos" and expect "surprises" in foreign policy and called out seemingly "misguided" domestic policy decisions. His style of holding close with his inner circle, coupled with unpredictable decision-making, may be liabilities if his administration cannot improve public communications and provide a more assuring narrative. Whether more ministers are replaced, Indonesia's Cabinet will soon need to inspire confidence, if the people are to be convinced that Prabowo's rapid policy changes are the proverbial pain before the gain.
[Julia Lau is a Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme, and Editor, Fulcrum at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. Yanuar Nugroho is Visiting Senior Fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore and Senior Lecturer at the Driyarkara School of Philosophy, Jakarta, Indonesia.]