Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – A rushed law revision might allow Prabowo Subianto to build a big-tent coalition government after he is inaugurated on Oct. 20 as Indonesia's eighth president, but the bigger question is if he has the skill and acumen to manage the diverse political parties and pressure groups he is bringing into the fold.
Outgoing President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo is a master at managing a coalition government, unlike any other head of state that preceded him. Effectively using both carrots and sticks, he single-handedly controlled the parties in his big-tent administration and fended off their challenges over past decade to always come out on top.
All nine political parties in the House of Representatives agreed this week to revise the 2008 State Ministries Law to remove the current cap of 34 ministries that a president can have in their cabinet.
The parties also agreed to remove the requirement that only career civil servants may be appointed deputy ministers. In addition, deputy ministers should be counted as cabinet members, which would automatically increase the size of the cabinet. For example, the Jokowi administration has 17 deputy ministers (not all career civil servants in contravention of the existing law), so his cabinet would expand to 51 ministers and deputy ministers under the revised law.
After a limited debate over the proposed revisions, the draft law revision is now awaiting formal House endorsement. This is expected before the current House's dissolution on Sept. 30 to make way for the new crop of legislators who were either elected or reelected in February's general election.
Prabowo will need as many cabinet positions and key administrative posts as possible to offer as incentives for political parties and interest groups to join his government.
He is aiming to form an even bigger coalition government than Jokowi's, and already has the support of the seven political parties in the next House.
Besides his Gerindra Party as well as the Golkar Party, the Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party that backed his presidential bid in February, Prabowo has clinched the support of former rival parties: the NasDem Party, the Nation Mandate Party (PKB) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
Prabowo is still trying to persuade the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) to join his government and is slated to meet party matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri later this month. If the country's largest party takes up his offer, he will have full, unopposed control of the House.
Jokowi's coalition government controlled a sizable majority in the House, so he was able to gain approval of almost any legislation he wanted with little to no opposition. The same scenario would apply to Prabowo, who would still control over 80 percent of the House without the PDI-P.
At the same time, several minor parties that do not have House seats are throwing their support behind Prabowo and asking for a share of power. Also wanting a slice of the political pie are pressure or interest groups, including businesses and religious organizations, the National Police and the Indonesian Military (TNI).
During Jokowi's two-term presidency, most policy debates have taken place behind government doors, away from the public's prying eyes. The House, in which coalition parties had a majority of over 80 percent, became a mere rubber stamp agency for the government's policies. For example, the House passed the Omnibus Law on Job Creation in just six months to replace 80 existing legislations. This meant that most of the political wheeling and dealing took place between the President and his big-tent members behind closed doors.
That Jokowi has been able to control these parties and get them to pass almost any legislation he wanted attests to his political skill, even though he does not chair any political party, unlike most of his predecessors. To fend off any challenges from within his ranks, he needed as large a coalition as he could muster, so he had room to set one party against another. The coalition of his second and final term includes all three of the largest parties: the PDI-P, Golkar and Gerindra.
Prabowo chairs Gerindra and is building an even bigger coalition. The last five years as defense minister has given the president-elect a close look at how Jokowi managed his coalition. In a recent speech, Prabowo described the outgoing President as the "best political mentor" he could ever have in preparing to form his government next month.
Negotiations on the composition of the Prabowo cabinet are now taking place between him and Gerindra on one side and all other parties on the other.
While the State Ministries Law revision is a foregone conclusion, it is not clear how many ministers and deputy ministers Prabowo plans to appoint.
Rumors are circulating about forming new ministries by breaking up existing ones, such as separating public housing from the Public Works and Housing Ministry, culture from the Education, Culture, Research and Technology Ministry and forestry from the Environment and Forestry Ministry.
Under a revised law, the next president will have full discretion to decide how many ministers and deputy ministers he wants in his cabinet. Although Gerindra insists that ministerial appointments would be decided primarily on an individual's competence, political parties have already sent in a list of potential candidates for Prabowo to vet and select.
What we've heard
A source within Gerindra Party said that the revision of the ministerial law was aimed at accommodating the big cabinet that Prabowo Subianto would form. "The number of ministers may be around 40," said the source.
The source said several ministries would be split. For example, the Public Housing Ministry is planned to be separated from the Public Works Ministry. The source added that this plan to split ministries has already been presented by Hashim Djojohadikusumo in various business forums with foreign investors. Hashim has also been appointed as chairman of the Housing Task Force. "The target is to build two million houses in rural areas," said the source.
Another ministry being considered for a split is the Information and Communication Ministry. The Information Ministry would focus on digital infrastructure development, while the Communication Ministry is projected to emulate the Information Ministry during the New Order era.
According to the source, Prabowo has also called upon potential ministers to discuss the sectoral issues they would handle. Prabowo has reached out to several business figures such as Wisnu Wardhana, Anindya Bakrie, and Rosan Roeslani, who are likely to fill ministerial positions in the economic sector.