Armando Siahaan & Anita Rachman, Jakarta – Although the suggestion that the Constitution be amended to allow President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to have another term was soundly rejected, the fact that it was even aired raises the question of whether the country lacks people with the incumbent's popularity and electability.
Some political analysts are not hopeful in this regard, but others argue that a suitable candidate will emerge by 2014.
Sunny Tanuwidjaja, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there was no single public figure who could match Yudhoyono. "In the eyes of Indonesians, especially at the grassroots level, Yudhoyono is perceived as a calm and wise leader," he said.
Arya Fernandes, an analyst from Charta Politika, said the four main political parties did not have a figure who could dominate the 2014 elections.
He said Democratic Party chairman Anas Urbaningrum had a long way to go before he could match Yudhoyono as the party's figurehead. "Anas is still working on boosting his popularity within the party by going on political safaris to the party's regional branches," Arya said.
He said Golkar had national leaders such as chairman Aburizal Bakrie, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono XI, Surya Paloh and Priyo Budi Santoso. "But they're locked in an internal struggle for power" that could severely split the party in backing one national leader, he said.
Arya said Bakrie may have nationwide popularity and financial strength but his reputation was tarnished because of issues such as the Lapindo mudflow and alleged tax evasion.
The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) also was suffering from a dearth of impressive figures. "[Chairwoman] Megawati is too old. If she decides to run again in 2014, she will damage herself and the party," Arya said.
Megawati's daughter, Puan Maharani, is too young to compete in 2014, while Pramono Anung, a House deputy speaker, is the next best contender but lacks popularity at the national level, he said.
Arya said the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the country's largest Islamic party, would most likely revisit its pragmatic approach of backing someone from another party instead of naming its own candidate.
Sunny said other parties had figures who could thrive at the national level. But even so, they had nowhere near Yudhoyono's electoral strength. "I doubt that these people would be able to dominate the country's political scene like Yudhoyono does," he said.
This did not mean that the country should keep him in the top job by amending the Constitution, as it would lead to a moral hazard. "If we keep relying on one person, then the country will lose the incentive to produce more qualified leaders," Sunny said.
Neither did it mean there was no one among Indonesia's 237 million people qualified to lead the country.
Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, a political analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said the system did not allow new, qualified leaders to emerge.
Ikrar said there was no shortage of qualified politicians to assume the highest positions in the country, but these positions frequently went to other figures. "Some politicians are afraid to emerge for fear they will be eclipsed by more popular and wealthier candidates," he said.
At the national level, Ikrar said, the system was limited because it still adopted the political culture that only Javanese and Islamic figures could assume state leadership positions.
"These criteria shouldn't matter as there are non-Java and non-Islamic leaders who are better than, say, Yudhoyono," he said.
Others argue that although no one on the current political scene can match Yudhoyono's popularity, by 2014 a suitable presidential candidate could emerge.
"The era of Yudhoyono, Megawati, Prabowo, Wiranto and Aburizal has passed," said Maarif Institute executive director Fajar Rizal Ul Haq. "This is their last period to rule. In 2014, we will need new leaders, and don't worry, we have plenty of stock."
Anis Matta, a deputy House speaker from the PKS, said similar myths that the incumbent was irreplaceable had surfaced during the presidencies of both Sukarno and Suharto.
"That's only a myth aired by the incumbents that no one could lead the country as well as they do," Anis said.
"But as a matter of fact, it proved wrong. Sukarno was ousted Suharto, who went on to lead this country, and so on and so forth. Indonesia is a big nation. I'm sure there are many figures out there who will be qualified to lead this country by 2014."
Anis said the two-term limit for the presidency was conceived to encourage the system to rejuvenate itself.
"All political parties, including the PKS, are regenerating," he said. "We have many contenders, like Anas from the Democratic Party or Golkar's [Deputy House Speaker] Priyo. I'm sure there will be someone new in 2014 to lead this country."