Stephen Fitzpatrick, Jakarta – Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has fractured the field ahead of registrations this weekend for Indonesian presidential elections in July.
Opponents and potential allies alike are floundering as they await an announcement on Friday of the affable general's running mate.
Rapidly firming speculation has his deputy being Bank Indonesia governor Boediono, a suave Australian and US-educated technocrat, who has overseen much of Indonesia's economic reform program during the five years of Mr Yudhoyono's administration.
Like an experienced fisherman toying with his catch, Mr Yudhoyono has effectively immobilised former leader – and his ex-boss – Megawati Sukarnoputri, who had hoped to run as the presidential candidate for her Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI-P).
As recently as last week, party Secretary General Pramono Anung affirmed PDI-P's intention "to continue to fight to be able to put Megawati forward as president". But political analyst Indria Samego, from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, declared yesterday that Ms Megawati's party had "taken the bait" in dealing with recent coalition-building advances from Mr Yudhoyono's team, and could as a result find itself abandoned by its constituents.
Visits by emissaries from Mr Yudhoyono's Democrat Party to Ms Megawati's central Jakarta home were little more than a political manoeuvre to disrupt her negotiations over a joint candidacy with the retired general Prabowo Subianto and his Greater Indonesia Movement, Dr Samego said.
Ms Megawati's house was recently dubbed by the politically savvy Jakarta newspaper Rakyat Merdeka the "command post of losers", for the number of visits by representatives from the also-rans among 38 parties that stood candidates in recent parliamentary polls.
Although many of these failed to achieve a 2.5 per cent vote threshold that would give them seats in the 560-seat legislature, they can nonetheless still join forces to cross a separate 25 per cent of national votes line required to stand a presidential candidate.
However Ms Megawati – under whom Mr Yudhoyono served as defence minister – now stands to be the biggest loser, with General Prabowo appearing to have siphoned the also-rans his way, rather than continue a deal with the daughter of Indonesia's first leader.
An agreement with enough minnows would let General Prabowo stand for president, with one of them putting up a running mate.
And with Mr Yudhoyono's Democrat Party the only group having won enough votes to stand a candidate in its own right – with the Democrats having sewn up deals with the half-dozen or so second-string parties on forming a ruling coalition in the new house – the cash-strapped PDI-P could be left in the position of not having a candidate stand at all.
Normally inclined to being something of a braggart, General Prabowo has played his cards extremely close during recent weeks, as Ms Megawati's party and the one-time ruling Golkar party each appear to disintegrate from within.
Golkar's likely presidential candidate, current Vice-President Jusuf Kalla, was expected to formally nominate yesterday along with his running-mate, People's Conscience Party retired former general Wiranto.
However, citing procedural problems, the pair failed to make an appearance at the electoral commission offices – serving only to strengthen the perception that Mr Yudhoyono's team is holding all the aces.