Adianto P. Simamora, Jakarta – Quick counts by pollsters and low voter registration could be the factors most likely to provoke clashes among supporters of rival candidates in next year's presidential election, a seminar warned Saturday.

The warning was based on analysis of 345 regional direct elections held in the past four years, at least 174 of which ended in conflict.

"Some of the conflicts were due to quick count results. It is a serious warning for the government to respond to the booming presence of pollsters conducting election quick counts," Siti Zuhro, a senior researcher from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), told the seminar hosted by the People's Voters Education Network (JPPR).

She gave examples of disputes over the results of gubernatorial elections in East Java and South Sumatra after the outcome of quick counts contradicted the official results.

The quick counts by five prominent pollsters showed Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Mudjiono won the East Java election, but the provincial elections commission later declared rival candidates Soekarwo and Saifullah Yusuf the winners.

The defeated team reported the case to the Constitutional Court, demanding it overturn the official election result.

A similar case took place in South Sumatra, when the local elections commission announced that Alex Noerdin and Edy Yusuf had won the gubernatorial election, although a quick count by a pollster showed otherwise.

Siti questioned the independence of institutions running election quick counts, accusing them of receiving funding from certain figures contesting polls.

"Just look at the poll surveyors. They are very rich. Where does the money come from?" she said.

She said the country needed to set up an official quick count center to announce the results of elections a day after the polls.

General Elections Commission (KPU) official Syamsul Bahri warned pollsters to be careful in selecting methodologies for quick counts because one ballot could affect the result.

"If poll surveyors use the wrong statistical data, the result could be misleading," he said at the same forum.

Syamsul said many people assumed the quick count result was the final election result, prompting disputes once the official KPU data contradicted that of the pollsters.

The 2008 law on presidential elections requires all pollsters to register with the KPU before conducting a quick count. They must also report their methodologies or sampling system to be implemented in election surveys or quick counts, the law says.

It is not clear whether the KPU will enforce these stipulations.

The JPPR warned that the poor registration of eligible voters could also be a source of conflict during the presidential election scheduled for July next year.

"Many voters remain unaware of whether they are already listed for the election. The problem could appear on election day," JPPR director Jerry Sumampow told the seminar.

The forum also warned of a possible conspiracy between business and political players in the presidential election.

Siti said certain businesspeople could pump in huge amounts of money to help certain candidates win for the sake of their own businesses.

"This kind of conspiracy has already taken place in several local elections," she added.

For example, Siti said, none of the governor candidates in East Java had criticized PT Lapindo Brantas for its failure to deal with the mudflow disaster that displaced thousands of people in Sidoarjo regency.

Lapindo, a gas company partly owned by the family of chief welfare minister Aburizal Bakrie, has been widely blamed for triggering the mudflow.