Abdul Khalik, Jakarta – Although most of the 34 parties running in next year's election are divided along the nationalist-Islamic line, voters made it clear in a recent survey their choices will driven by the parties' performance.
Of the 16 established players, eight parties are defined by voters as nationalist-oriented parties, seven as religious – six Islamic parties and one Christian party – and one as a socialist party.
Among the 18 newcomers, three appear to follow socialism, two represent Islamic views and 13 embrace nationalism.
The National Sun Party (PMB) and the Ulema National Awakening Party (PKNU) are associated with Islam. The Indonesian Workers and Employers Party (PPPI), the New Indonesia Party of Struggle (PPIB) and the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) promote socialist ideals.
The PMB was formed by ex-PAN members and plans to try to woo Muhammadiyah followers, whereas the PKNU is banking on support from Nahdlatul Ulama constituents.
Of the nationalist parties, the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) led by former TNI chief Wiranto and the Democratic Reform Party (PDP) led by former minister for state enterprises Laksamana Sukardi are viewed as the strongest.
"The competition for us is very stiff because there are many nationalist parties fighting for support from the same voters," Indonesian National Populist Fortress Party (PNBKI) secretary-general Suhardi Sudiro said.
But observers warn parties are on the wrong track if they rely on ideology to predict voter behavior and to woo voters.
"People vote for a party not because it is an Islamic or nationalist party, but because they believe it cares and can bring in prosperity," Muhammad Qodari, executive director of Indo Barometer, said.
A recent Indo Barometer poll of 1,200 people in 33 provinces, conducted between June 5 and 16, found voters took a pragmatic approach, with 34.2 percent choosing a party they believed was in touch with people and honest.
About 10.8 percent of respondents said they put faith in a party because they believed it to be free from corruption. Only 4 percent of respondents said they would vote for a party because it was Islamic, and 1.6 percent said they could choose a nationalist party, the survey found.
Most respondents did not care about the differences between Islamic and non-Islamic parties.
Political observer Indra J. Pilliang of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies said more parties were trying to change their Islamic image as they came to realize the brand of Islam was no longer selling.
"The PAN and the PKB, for instance, have tried hard to free themselves of their Islamic image to woo more voters. We can see the PPP lost a large number of voters when it tried to redefine itself as an Islamic party," he said.
Political scientist Syamsudin Harris of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences said the survey results showed that the PKS, the most promising Islamic party, could attract voters not because of its Islamic brand but for its reputation for being clean and honest.