Richel Langit, Jakarta – Politicians from Indonesia's big parties are ganging up against election favorite Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono by rallying behind his rival, President Megawati Sukarnoputri.
Barring the unexpected, four parties – Golkar, the Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP), the Christian-based Prosperous Peace Party (PDS) and ruling party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – are to announce their political backing for incumbent Megawati on Thursday.
Their move not only improves Megawati's chances in the September 20 runoff election, but also poses a serious threat to Yudhoyono's authority if the retired four-star army general is the one who gets elected.
The four parties have a combined 304 seats in the 550-seat House of Representatives (DPR), which, under the newly amended 1945 constitution, has the authority to enact laws and approve the state budget, announced on Monday by Megawati. Bills endorsed by the House, for example, automatically take effect 30 days after they are approved by legislators, with or without the president's signature. All budget allocations also have to be approved by the House.
More than that, the appointment of chiefs to the Indonesian military (TNI) – the national police, the army, navy and air force – should also get approval from the House. Even the appointments of Indonesian ambassadors posted overseas and foreign ambassadors posted in Jakarta require prior approval from legislators.
While the coalition may not be able to prevent Yudhoyono from grabbing the presidential seat in the September 20 direct election, the four parties will surely create a powerful bloc in the House, where Yudhoyono's Democratic Party and coalition partners, the Muslim-based Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI), have 66 seats combined.
If elected, Yudhoyono, who has played down the significance of coalition building in winning a direct presidential election, will no doubt have tremendous difficulties in pursuing his programs. To make things more complicated, Yudhoyono has chosen to do it all by himself. He and running mate Jusuf Kalla have refrained from striking political deals with parties that have not chosen sides, particularly the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which have more than 160 House seats combined.
Of course, Yudhoyono, who resigned from Megawati's administration in March to contest in the presidential election, could become an "authoritarian" leader by pressing for his programs with or without the backing of the House, arguing that because he is directly elected by the people, he should therefore be accountable to the people directly. Such a move, however, would place him in constant political standoff with the House, whose members are also directly elected by the people.
Former president Abdurrahman Wahid took such a hostile attitude toward the House that it ended up costing him quite dearly. Barely two years after he was elected president in October 1999, the House turned an alleged graft case into a political issue that led to his impeachment in 2001. Under the newly amended constitution, however, impeaching a president requires the approval of the Constitutional Court.
While the newly amended constitution does not allow the House to impeach an incumbent president arbitrarily, inharmonious relations between the House and the president may create political instability, a situation that could trigger a fresh round of multidimensional crisis.
To avoid this, Yudhoyono may choose to cooperate with big factions in the House, particularly Golkar, PDI-P and PPP. Such a cooperation, however, would last only as long as Yudhoyono were willing to offer political concessions. This means Yudhoyono would have to engage in certain kinds of horse-trading, something he has long avoided. In fact, one of the reasons he is opposed to forging a coalition before the September 20 election is to avoid such political bargaining.
But even if Megawati gets elected, her administration is unlikely to bring about radical changes, as she would have to accommodate the political interests of the parties that support her. The problem is, the four parties rallying behind her do not share the same ideas on how to bring the country out of the many crises that have been plaguing it since 1997.
PPP, for example, has long pushed for the implementation of Islamic laws, or syariah, in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country. This political platform, however, contradicts PDI-P's and Golkar's nationalist ideology. PDS, on the other hand, is an ultra-Christian party that fights for the interests of the country's Christian minority. Christians account for only about 10% of Indonesia's 215 million people.
Even then, several of the parties still have common links. For instance, Golkar, PDI-P and PPP are closely related to Suharto's New Order regime, which is blamed for pushing the country to the brink of bankruptcy. Golkar was the political machinery that backed Suharto, while PDI-P, previously known as PDI, came about as a coalition of several nationalist parties, and PPP developed as a coalition of Muslim-based parties; the formation of both coalitions was ordered by Suharto.
Regardless of who gets elected next month, the latest alliance appears to have significantly boosted the bargaining power of politicians associated with the New Order regime. And while Megawati's administration has already failed in its battle to rid the country of corruption, if elected, it's quite possible that Yudhoyono could offer concessions to corrupt politicians in exchange for their backing. So whoever wins the upcoming election, it seems the people, who have become even more poor since the country plunged into economic crisis in 1997, will suffer even more.
[Richel Langit is a freelance journalist based in Jakarta. She covers various topics including education, health, the environment and political issues. She worked as a reporter for the Manila Times in the Philippines for five years before moving to Jakarta, Indonesia, in 1999.]