Devi Asmarani, Jakarta – Presidential aspirant Amien Rais is fading into the background as his competitors step up their campaigns ahead of the July 5 election.
With the top picks for running mates already embraced by his rivals, his choices are limited. His attempts at forging a coalition with Islamic parties like the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and smaller nationalist parties have been met with a cool response.
Analysts say the National Assembly Speaker's chances in the presidential election are slim and that his days in politics may be numbered.
"He has little prospects even to win the first round because potential running mates, who can boost his support, are already with someone else," said political analyst Sukardi Rinakit. "The smartest thing to do now is to pick someone with considerable financial resources to fill his party's puny coffers."
Dr Amien has indicated that he will run with a nationalist figure – possibly a civilian – after efforts to woo retired and active generals like military chief Endriartono Sutarto failed.
A possible running mate would be former Cabinet minister and businessman Siswono Yudhohusodo, who has hinted at his willingness. The decision on Dr Amien's running mate will be announced this week.
His ambition to run for the top post this year has not been supported by his party's poor showing in the legislative election last month. Far from clinching the expected 15 per cent of votes, Dr Amien's National Mandate Party (PAN) won merely 6.4 per cent this year.
Devastated by the electoral showing, Dr Amien began to woo other parties for backing. He met several parties, including PKS and the third-largest party, the Nation's Awakening Party (PKB), to establish a loose coalition called the Forum to Save the Nation.
But there was little follow-up to these meetings, and parties like PKB had shown scant interest in joining Dr Amien in forming a king-making coalition like 1999's Axis Force. Said Mr Sukardi: "These parties calculated that they will probably not get anything if they sided with him, so they would rather join the large parties like Golkar or the PDI-P." Parties like PKB or the Muslim-based United Development Party are after concessions like ministerial positions from the future president, he said.
Dr Amien has the backing of the leadership of Muhammadiyah, an Islamic group he once chaired. But it remains to be seen whether the group's 30 million followers will support him in July.
Some Muhammadiyah figures predict that Dr Amien will only generate a low 30 per cent of votes from the group. Alone in the race for the presidency, the Muslim scholar may finish last in the fray in July, many reckon.