Sian Powell, Jakarta – Australians who mourned the dead at the first commemoration of the Bali bombings will remember the man who is now the favourite in Indonesia's presidential race.
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, then Indonesia's chief security minister, moved many to tears as he stood under the hot Bali sun, and spoke of the tragedy that had ripped apart so many lives.
"They were our sons, our daughters, our fathers and mothers, brothers and sisters, our cousins, our best friends, our soulmates," he said. "And they were all innocents. They all had happy plans to spend 'tomorrow' under the sun. They all had families to write and come home to."
It was a statesman-like oration and exactly suited the mood of the mourners. SBY, as he is familiarly called, on Friday became Indonesia's most popular presidential candidate according to two of the nation's most reputable polls.
Today's massive nationwide election, canvassing 147 million voters, will determine whether Mr Yudhoyono's tiny Democrat party follows on his coat-tails. According to Friday's broad-based International Foundation for Election Systems poll, the wily campaigner's support had doubled to 18 per cent and outstripped that for President Megawati Sukarnoputri for the first time.
An Indonesian Survey Organisation (LSI) poll also found Mr Yudhoyono rated as Indonesia's most popular presidential candidate, with 31 per cent support, followed by Mrs Megawati with 21 per cent support. Suddenly the SBY star is shining bright.
It had been eclipsed earlier in the year, when he was forced to offer his resignation as chief security minister in Mrs Megawati's cabinet, ostensibly because he misused public advertisements to sell himself. The ads featured an avuncular SBY calling for a peaceful election. They particularly infuriated the President's husband, Taufiq Kiemas, who called the security minister "childish".
Yet his resignation gave Mr Yudhoyono, a one-time army general, the opportunity to spend all his time campaigning for his tiny Democrat party. The complexities of both today's parliamentary election and the direct presidential election scheduled for July means it is impossible to say with any certainty how the cards will fall, but one thing is clear: SBY is now a force to be reckoned with.
Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) political analyst Mochtar Prabotinggi says that while Mr Yudhoyono is clearly a man of integrity, he fears the former general has yet to shrug off the military influence of years in the army elite.
Although not connected with the Indonesian military's more reprehensible campaigns, Mr Yudhoyono was chief of staff of the Jakarta Regional Military Command at the time of the attack on Mrs Megawati's party headquarters in July 1996. It was a brutal Suharto crackdown on a rival political force and the exact death toll remains unknown.
"That's what I'm worried about with SBY and the Democrat Party – there's a smell of the military," Dr Prabotinggi says.
Mr Yudhoyono is likely to be popular with Western governments, not least because he has said all the right things about the war on terror. At the Bali commemoration he said Indonesia would spare no effort to hunt down those responsible for the attacks. "Some are still on the run, but make no mistake: we will hunt them, we will find them, we will bring them to justice."
He is pragmatic, too, about the nature of terrorism in Indonesia. Last year he warned publicly that it was time to abandon the "international conspiracy" theories and admit the Bali bombings and the Marriott blast were the work of Indonesians.
Landry Subianto, a political analyst with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, believes SBY already has moved past his military phase. Mr Subianto's concerns are more about the politician's character: Mr Yudhoyono is known to be indecisive, dithering on critical decisions. "His style of leadership is seen as too cautious, too careful, and that's ingrained in his personality," he says.
The showdown with Mrs Megawati actually became a selling point for Mr Yudhoyono, Mr Subianto believes. He stood up to an administration that has become increasingly disliked by ordinary Indonesians, and managed to do it in a seemingly fair and honest way.
Dr Prabotinggi says it's entirely reasonable for the Indonesian electorate to prefer SBY over the incumbent President. "He is much calmer than her," he says. "Besides, Megawati has disappointed and betrayed her supporters – that's the real story."