Maudey Khalisha, Jakarta – Lawmakers and analysts warn that soaring jet fuel prices and a weakening rupiah, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, could add as much as Rp 1 trillion to this year's haj pilgrimage bill.
To cushion the blow of the rising costs, whether to the state budget or to pilgrims themselves, they have urged the government to negotiate better deals with airlines and service providers in Saudi Arabia.
"If there is an increase in the total budget for the 2026 haj cost, which is estimated to reach around Rp 900 billion, it should be borne by the government," said Hakam Naja, an economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Center for Sharia Economic Development, to The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.
He also warned the government about the risks of filling the gap using pilgrimage funds managed by the Haj Financial Management Agency (BPKH), which are contributed by both current and future pilgrims.
"Although it is burdensome, the government must prepare subsidies from the 2026 state budget for prospective haj pilgrims, such as a subsidy for domestic economy-class airfares amounting to Rp 2.6 trillion for two months starting in April," he said.
Previously, House of Representatives Commission VIII chairman Marwan Dasopang also estimated additional expenses of between Rp 900 billion and Rp 1 trillion for the 2026 haj.
With jet fuel prices in Indonesia jumping by around 70 percent in April and the rupiah sliding past Rp 17,000 against the United States dollar, Hakam warned that the increase is likely to extend beyond airfare, affecting accommodation, food, local transportation and insurance costs in Saudi Arabia.
The challenge comes just weeks before the first wave of Indonesian pilgrims is scheduled to depart to Saudi Arabia on April 22, with most having already settled their haj payment earlier this year.
Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Management at IPB University, Irfan Syauqi Beik, said that on top of increasing subsidies through the state budget or other funding sources, the government could also pursue negotiations with airlines.
"There are only two carriers involved [for haj], Saudia and [national flag carrier] Garuda. We can still manage pricing on the Garuda side, but Saudia is beyond our control as it is owned by the Saudi government," Irfan told the Post on Tuesday.
"That is why I believe the Haj and Umrah Ministry should pursue a dedicated approach and diplomatic lobbying, given this extraordinary situation, to ensure Saudia does not impose additional charges and that costs remain in line with what was previously agreed."
He added that while the government has indicated efforts to keep fare increases within a 9 to 13 percent range, the policy must be continuously reviewed to ensure it remains reasonable and does not harm the aviation industry.
Haj and Umrah Minister Mochamad Irfan Yusuf said Garuda Indonesia has proposed an additional cost of around Rp 7.9 million per pilgrim, while Saudia has requested an increase of about US$480 (Rp 8.2 million) per person.
He noted that, even without changes to flight routes, the average cost per pilgrim is projected to rise to around Rp 46.9 million, an increase of about 39.85 percent.
If rerouting is required to avoid conflict zones, costs could climb further to Rp 50.8 million, or roughly 51.48 percent higher.
Despite these pressures, President Prabowo Subianto has instructed that any increase should not be passed on to pilgrims and has instead pledged to lower 2026 haj costs.
"Unless the Saudi government decides otherwise, we will ensure that the cost of haj this year is reduced by around Rp 2 million. Even with rising avtur prices, we are committed to lowering costs this year," Prabowo said on Wednesday.
Umrah remains resilient
Meanwhile, the umrah sector, fully operated by private players and not a state obligation given its voluntary (sunnah) nature, is expected to adjust through market mechanisms, with demand remaining relatively resilient even as operators and consumers absorb higher costs.
A recent analysis by the Indonesian Muslim Haj and Umrah Organizers Association (AMPHURI) found that despite heightened geopolitical risks, the industry continues to show strong demand.
"Even as prices rise, routes change and global tensions escalate, demand remains. Indonesia, with the world's largest Muslim population, is a very strong market. Moreover, Makkah and Madinah remain relatively stable and conducive as destinations for worship," wrote Ulul Albab, head of research and development at AMPHURI, in the association's outlook.
"At this point, we can understand that the umrah business is a resilient industry. Even in times of crisis, margins can increase due to price adjustments."
However, the association noted that the sector's heavy reliance on international flights leaves smaller operators vulnerable to rising costs and operational risks.
Economist Irfan Syauqi Beik also noted that in the short term, while a surge in rescheduling may occur, over the longer term, he expects demand to remain relatively stable despite rising prices.
"Bank deposits are still growing, which suggests household savings remain strong," he said, adding that strong religious motivation continues to drive demand, with many pilgrims willing to reprioritize spending to proceed with their umrah plans.
Source: https://asianews.network/jet-fuel-spike-weak-rupiah-to-blow-haj-budget-by-a-trillion