East Timor's recalibration of its stance on Myanmar's military regime has drawn both scrutiny and intrigue across Southeast Asia, as Dili seeks to smooth its path into Asean ahead of next month's summit.
Once a vocal critic of Myanmar's junta, which came to power in a 2021 coup that toppled the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and plunged the country into civil conflict, East Timor has in recent weeks taken a markedly softer line.
Dili reportedly assured the junta earlier this month it would not permit opposition groups such as the National Unity Government (NUG) to operate or hold office on Timorese soil, marking a diplomatic about-turn.
The shift has been widely interpreted as a pragmatic gesture, intended to allay concerns among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' member states and eliminate the final obstacles to East Timor's long-sought accession. Observers are divided over the implications, however.
"Dili would not want a potential hurdle to its long-awaited accession," said political analyst Vu Lam, pointing to the "pragmatic and strategic pressures associated with its imminent Asean accession".
Joanne Lin, a senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute's Asean Studies Centre, echoed the sentiment: "[East Timor] has come a very long way to reach this point, and the last thing it wants is drama playing out days or weeks before the October summit that could cast doubt on its entry."
'A sovereign choice'
East Timor – also known as Timor-Leste – has been on the threshold of Asean for decades, earning observer status in 2022, more than 20 years after gaining independence from Indonesia. Its membership is expected to be formally affirmed at the 47th Asean Summit in Kuala Lumpur from October 26 to 28.
But the diplomatic path to accession has not been smooth. Dili's public denunciations of Myanmar's human rights record led to the expulsion of the Timorese ambassador in 2023. Then, earlier this year, the junta informed Asean chair Malaysia that it would withhold support for East Timor's membership – a potentially fatal blow in a bloc that operates by consensus.
Bilateral talks earlier this month appeared to turn over a new leaf in relations, however. In a foreign ministry statement released on September 19, Myanmar's military rulers said East Timor had proposed Naypyidaw open an embassy in Dili and "reaffirmed its commitment not to allow the activities of illegal organisations against the Myanmar government", in a veiled reference to opposition groups.
For Asean watchers, the episode highlights the enduring tension at the heart of the bloc: the principle of non-interference vs the imperative to address human rights crises.
"With the rest of the Asean members still giving de facto recognition to the military junta, my guess is that Asean wants East Timor to mend fences with the junta and adopt its official position of cooperating at the official level but not admitting political office holders to meetings," said Sharon Seah, a senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and coordinator of its Asean Studies Centre.
But as Seah pointed out, Dili's apparent pledge to cut ties with Myanmar's opposition groups was "as much a message for the junta as it is for other Asean members".
"There are no NUG offices in any Asean member state," she said. "But this does not mean that regional governments do not engage with the NUG – they still do, because the resolution to the Myanmar crisis must necessarily involve all stakeholders both inside and outside of Myanmar."
Still, the move has stirred unease among some Asean members. "Some Asean members will welcome the lowered temperature as it takes a sensitive issue off the table," Lin said. "But for others, especially the more democratic members like Indonesia or Malaysia, there may be unease that [East Timor] has stepped back from its earlier values just to secure ascension."
Calling the pivot "unpalatable", geopolitical analyst Matteo Piasentini said it was nevertheless East Timor's "internal decision and non-interference is a pillar principle of Asean".
"It's a sovereign choice that Asean states usually respect," said the international relations lecturer at the University of the Philippines, adding that the bloc "did not coerce Dili" to mend bridges with Myanmar.
The cost of consensus
For political scientist Lam, who specialises in Southeast Asian affairs, the episode "demonstrates the costs of prioritising membership and regional consensus over support for democratic movements and human rights".
It could further constrain Asean's ability to hold Myanmar's junta to account for its actions, particularly as the military prepares for the first phase of an election in December, "as it shows that regional cohesion is, once again, being prioritised", he warned.
Still, Lin stressed that East Timor's membership and Myanmar's election would be handled separately by Asean in the run-up to next month's summit.
"After all, many Asean chairs have engaged the NUG, and none of them have been accused of violating non-interference," she said. "In this case, it feels less like East Timor breaking Asean principles, and more like it being pressured, or even bullied, into submission."
"What matters most now is that Timor-Leste avoids creating another flashpoint that would burden the Asean chair with having to manage a fresh controversy or put this onto an already crowded summit agenda," Lin added.