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Indonesia sets 2026 GDP growth target at 5.4%, deficit at 2.68% of GDP

Source
Jakarta Globe - September 24, 2025

Arnoldus Kristianus, Jakarta – The House of Representatives on Tuesday passed the 2026 State Budget Law in a plenary session attended by Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.

The budget foresees a wider fiscal deficit than this year but is intended to serve as a tool to achieve the government's short- and medium-term development goals, while also acting as a buffer for low-income households against economic shocks.

Macroeconomic assumptions

  • Economic growth: 5.4 percent
  • Inflation: 2.5 percent
  • Exchange rate: Rp 16,500 per US dollar
  • 10-year government bond yield: 6.9 percent
  • Indonesian crude oil price (ICP): $70 per barrel
  • Oil lifting: 610,000 barrels per day
  • Gas lifting: 984,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day

Key projections

  • State revenue: Rp 3,153.58 trillion
  • Tax revenue: Rp 2,693.71 trillion
  • Non-tax revenue (PNBP): Rp 459.2 trillion
  • Grants: Rp 660 billion
  • State expenditure: Rp 3,842.72 trillion
  • Central government spending: Rp 3,149.73 trillion
  • Ministries: Rp 1,510.55 trillion
  • Non-ministerial agencies: Rp 1,639.19 trillion
  • Transfers to regions: Rp 692.99 trillion
  • Budget deficit: Rp 689.15 trillion, or 2.68 percent of GDP

Welfare indicators

  • Open unemployment rate: 4.44-4.96 percent
  • Poverty rate: 6.5-7.5 percent
  • Extreme poverty rate: 0-0.5 percent
  • Gini ratio: 0.377-0.380
  • Human Capital Index: 0.57
  • Farmers' Welfare Index: 0.7731
  • Formal job creation: 37.95 percent
  • GNI per capita: $5,5

Finance Minister Purbaya stressed that fiscal discipline will remain a priority, but the 2026 budget is also designed to accelerate growth, create jobs, and reduce inequality, while ensuring macroeconomic stability.

Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/business/indonesia-sets-2026-gdp-growth-target-at-54-deficit-at-268-of-gd

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