Ilona Estherina, Jakarta – The joint aggression of the United States and Israel against Iran on Saturday, February 28, 2026, has triggered a surge in global crude oil prices. This price spike poses a risk factor that could impose additional burdens on the State Budget (APBN).
Moshe Rizal, an oil and gas industry expert from the National Association of Oil and Gas Companies (Aspermigas), stated that oil and gas prices are at risk of further increases following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital route for global energy trade. On Saturday, February 28, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) closed the strait amid escalating tensions.
The negative impact will result in increased logistics costs and rising prices for oil and gas commodities. "Because we are net importers, the impact on our fuel will be quite significant," he said when contacted on Sunday, March 1, 2026.
Citing data from Trading Economics on Friday, February 27, 2026, the price of WTI crude oil rose to US$67 per barrel, approaching a seven-month high. Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude oil rose to US$73 per barrel, reaching nearly an eight-month high. By the close of trading on February 28, the price of WTI crude oil had reached US$67.2 per barrel, while Brent was recorded at US$72.8 per barrel.
The burden on the State Budget (APBN) could also increase to cover fuel subsidies. Crude oil prices based on the macro assumptions of the state budget are set at US$70 per barrel. If the conflict continues to escalate, crude oil prices have the potential to keep rising.
Eventually, the government will have to cover the price difference for subsidies to maintain stable prices. The budget allocated for subsidies could increase due to the deviation of oil prices from the target.
"So the budget that we are spending, which was already planned, for example, could possibly go off track at the end of last year for 2026," he said.
The surge in crude oil prices also affects the exchange rate of the rupiah. Indonesia is highly dependent on crude oil and fuel imports, which are transacted in dollars. Thus, when prices rise, the amount of dollars to be paid increases. Buying pressure on the dollar can weaken the rupiah.
This situation will worsen the state budget deficit. "With this (war), the budget deficit could become even worse," said Moshe.
The joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran occurred amid negotiations over Tehran's nuclear issue. According to Al Jazeera, Tehran responded to the attack by launching waves of missiles and drones at Israel and several U.S. military bases in the Middle East.
Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2089973/indonesias-budget-at-risk-from-us-israeli-aggression-against-ira