Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – President Joko Jokowi Widodo is contemplating fielding his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep to run in the November gubernatorial election in Central Java, taking the war against his political mentor Megawati Sukarnoputri, the matron of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), to the next level. Central Java has always been a PDI-P stronghold.
Jokowi has already won one battle when his eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka won the presidential election in February as running mate to his defense minister Prabowo Subianto. The Prabowo-Gibran pair beat the PDI-P's candidate former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, who ran with Jokowi's former political minister Mahfud MD.
Building his political dynasty for Jokowi means turning his back on Megawati, who gave the ticket to him to run in the presidential races in 2014 and again 2019, both of which he won. Now as he prepares to step down in October, he is grooming his children and other relatives to run for office, taking advantage of his high approval rating in the twilight of his presidency.
The wound having hardly healed after losing one big battle to Jokowi, Megawati may already be looking at another defeat in the November local election in Central Java, where 29-year-old Kaesang looks unbeatable, at least according to several opinion surveys. The PDI-P has no strong candidate to field who can match Kaesang's increasing popularity.
Megawati's daughter, Puan Maharani, a senior member of the party and speaker of the House of Representatives, has indicated that the PDI-P may consider supporting Kaesang's nomination. But Puan may have spoken out of turn. In the PDI-P, all power rests with chair Megawati.
This is turning into a personal war between Jokowi and Megawati, Indonesia's president in 2001-2004. They were close political allies for much of the last 10 years, but drifted apart ahead of the February elections. Expect more battles between these two.
At the last the PDI-P leadership meeting in May, Megawati had some unusually harsh words about the lengths Jokowi would go to fulfill his ambitions. She ordered the party to win as many of the local elections in November as possible to strengthen the party's political grip.
The PDI-P won the most votes in the legislative elections in February and consequently will have the most seats in the House. But the party lost the more coveted presidency, thanks to Jokowi's intervention in the elections.
The November elections will show who is the more influential and powerful of the two.
Kaesang is already going on the offensive to boost his public profile ahead of November. As a springboard, he is using the self-proclaimed millennial Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), of which he was made chairman in October, only two days after joining thanks to father's intervention.
He also has his father to thank for clearing the legal barrier for him to contest the gubernatorial elections. Previously, a candidate had to be at least 30 years at the time of registration, but in May, the Supreme Court ruled they could be 30 years at the time of inauguration, which is scheduled in January. Kaesang turns 30 this Christmas Day.
What we've heard
This was not all that different from when the Constitutional Court last year bent the 40-year age limit to run for president and vice-president, by carving an exception that the limit did not apply to those holding an elected office. Gibran, 36 years old and mayor of Surakarta in Central Java, benefited from this exception, ran and won the race as running mate to Prabowo.
Other parties contesting the November elections must take new-kid-on-the-block Kaesang seriously, certainly in regions where the PSI gained seats in the local councils following the February elections. Very often, nominations require parties to form alliances to meet the minimum threshold, and Kaesang is using this leverage to cut deals with other parties.
Last week Kaesang met with the chair of the Islamist Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) Ahmad Syaikhu, who is almost twice his age, to discuss possible alliances in nominating a common candidate for the Jakarta gubernatorial election. Ideologically, the PKS and PSI are worlds apart, but they may have common interests in Jakarta.
Jokowi had earlier planned to field Kaesang in Jakarta, but this was a tall order since former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan looks unbeatable based on many surveys, if he can get an electoral ticket.
Now, it is looking like Kaesang will run for the governorship in Central Java, where it is almost certain he will win, but at the expense of upsetting Megawati, once again.
Nominations for contesting the elections open on Aug. 27-29, so Jokowi can still move Kaesang around looking at the nation's political mood. But his personal battle with Megawati will go on even after he steps down from office in October.
[This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia's political and business landscape.]