Julia Lau, Maria Monica Wihardja – A nationwide survey finds that many Indonesian voters supporting a party in the legislative election might not support the party's chosen presidential candidate. The three presidential candidates are liked more for their personality traits than policy stances. In short, personality still outweighs policy.

This is the second in a short series analysing the results of an ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey conducted nationwide on 2,000 Indonesian respondents by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI). The first commentary discussed the comparative strength of various media platforms and other sources for election-related news and information. This article focuses on the profile of voters who support each presidential candidate and respondents' views of each candidate. The authors assess whether and how Indonesian voters' voting behaviours are influenced by a candidate's personality or his campaign's policy platform.

One way of evaluating people's inclinations to vote based on policy versus personality is by examining the alignment of support for national (or regional) legislators and support for the presidential candidate. Voters may choose a party contesting for legislative seats that are not aligned with the presidential candidate associated with or endorsed by the party. Such cases suggest that the personality of the presidential candidate significantly influences voter choice.

The survey results show that, with less than a month to go before voting on 14 February, Indonesian voters are prepared to vote for a different presidential candidate than the one associated with the party they would vote for when electing their national legislators. (The survey used the proxy of a respondent's choice of his/her preferred People's Representative Council (DPR) candidate or party if the election were to be held the day of the survey.) To some extent, all three presidential candidates cannot count on a solid bloc of party votes, notwithstanding the apparent coalitional unity demonstrated as they go about their campaigning.

Sixty-three per cent of respondents choosing the National Democrat (NasDem) party indicated that they would vote for that party's candidate, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan. For context, Anies is consistently ranked third in electability ratings, behind his opponents Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo. More concerningly for Anies, the survey indicated that only 48 per cent of respondents who would elect legislators from his running-mate Muhaimin Iskandar's party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), would vote for Anies.

Even the frontrunner is not spared this voter ambivalence. Although 90 per cent of respondents who would vote for Gerindra legislators would choose Prabowo, only 53 per cent of his coalition partner Democrat Party's (Partai Demokrat, PD) would. Given that PD is led by former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's (SBY) son, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, these numbers reflect the tension within the nationalist segment of voters or the presence of SBY loyalists who might be uncomfortable supporting Prabowo.

Ganjar has a slight edge from his party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). More than two-thirds, or 69 per cent, who would vote for PDI-P legislators indicated that they would vote for Ganjar, a reflection of PDIP's renowned party discipline.

Thus, Anies' voter mix consists of 14 per cent self-identified NasDem supporters, 20 per cent PKB supporters, and 23 per cent Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) supporters. Prospective Prabowo voters hailed from his own Gerindra (32 per cent), Golkar (16 per cent) and PD (6 per cent). Ganjar's voter mix was the most concentrated, with 62 per cent coming from PDI-P supporters alone.

A key finding was the significant difference in the voter profiles of Anies supporters vis-a-vis Prabowo and Ganjar's. Prospective Anies voters are more educated, earn higher incomes, and are more connected to the Internet than either Prabowo or Ganjar voters.

Given a three-horse race scenario, those who would vote for Ganjar indicated the highest approval for current President Joko Widodo (Jokowi). This ironically suggests that Ganjar, not Prabowo, might be the people's perceived heir to Jokowi's legacy, even as Prabowo's running mate is Jokowi's eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka. In fact, 90 per cent and 81 per cent of Ganjar's and Prabowo's supporters respectively were "quite" or "very" satisfied with Jokowi's performance. This compares with 53 per cent of Anies' supporters (who were "quite" or "very" satisfied with Jokowi), reflecting Anies' oppositional campaign for change.

Anies' supporters consistently show the highest rates of disapproval with existing power structures or the state of governance in Indonesia, and a readiness to criticise the government.

In a personality-centric presidential race, why potential voters like and dislike certain candidates is an important factor to consider. All respondents were asked whether and why they liked or disliked each candidate. Table 2 shows that those who knew of Anies (defined as having heard, read about, or seen him) and liked him most liked his intelligence, with 23.9 per cent of respondents selecting this quality. Those who knew of Ganjar and liked him most liked his humbleness (being "down to earth"), with 19.8 per cent choosing this.

Just over half of survey respondents who knew of Prabowo and liked him most liked him for his firm or authoritative demeanour, despite his team's portrayal of him as an avuncular, likeable "gemoy" figure. Prabowo's connection to Jokowi only tips the scales slightly for why supporters like him, which defies a common perception that the key reason behind Prabowo's popularity is Jokowi's staunch support.

As for reasons why candidates were disliked, respondents who knew of Prabowo and disliked him most disliked him because he "looks ambitious" (23.9 per cent) although a quarter chose "Others", with the most-cited explanation here being his "pairing with Gibran". Reflecting the difficulty of pleasing one's direct constituents, perhaps, respondents who said they knew of and disliked Anies most "disliked" the former Jakarta governor for not showing "good work results" (20.4 per cent) while respondents who said they disliked Ganjar most "disliked" him because they did not know him well enough (13.2 per cent), despite Ganjar's recent governorship of Central Java.

That said, there are limitations to this survey's ability to explain a candidate's charisma and how voters decide who to vote for. For those indicating "Other reasons" why they liked a candidate, the option "I just like him" was the most-used explanation for Prabowo and Ganjar, and second for Anies. For those choosing "Other reasons" for disliking a candidate, "I just don't like him" came second for Ganjar and Anies, and third for Prabowo. When restricted to the candidates' supporters, approval ratings on personality are still higher for all candidates than for their policy stances.

The above discussion shows that although Indonesian voters do weigh their preferences for a particular presidential candidate on his personality and policy, personality still outweighs policy.

[Julia Lau is a Senior Fellow and Co-Coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme, and Editor, Fulcrum at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. Maria Monica Wihardja is a Visiting Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and Adjunct Assistant Professor at the National University of Singapore.]

Source: https://fulcrum.sg/indonesia-votes-2024-personality-versus-policy-in-the-presidential-election