Anita Rachman – This week, lawmakers representing the nine political factions in the House of Representatives will begin a series of meetings aimed at reaching a consensus on the long-running debate over the legislative threshold.

The goal is to have an agreement that would be passed by the House plenary as an amendment to the Legislative Elections Law by the end of the month, a full two years before the next polls.

But at least one member of the revisions working committee, lawmaker Akbar Faisal from the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), is weary of what undue haste might produce. "This is an important law, don't rush it," he said. "If we can't reach a resolution, just go with the current law."

Percentage points

The lawmakers deliberating the amendments have been stuck on several points that will shape the next legislature, such as women's representation and campaign spending limitations.

But one issue reigns above the rest: the legislative threshold – the minimum percentage of votes a party must win nationwide to be represented in the legislature.

The current threshold figure of 2.5 percent allowed nine political parties to enter the House during the 2009 elections; too many, according to some of the bigger parties that want to up the stakes and "simplify" the composition of the House.

The Golkar Party and Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the second and third largest parties in the House respectively, have argued that 5 percent is the ideal threshold. If that figure had been used during the 2009 elections, only six political parties would hold seats in the legislature today.

The largest party in the House, the ruling Democratic Party, is in a coalition with five other parties including three small ones, and is pushing for 4 percent.

The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), a mid-sized party, is OK with 3 percent to 5 percent, while the smaller parties all maintain that the threshold should stay at 2.5 percent.

Fighting for 4 percent

By several accounts, the 4 percent figure appears to be the most feasible option. Home Affairs Minister Gamawan Fauzi said in October that the government itself has proposed raising the threshold from 2.5 percent to 4 percent. The Democrats are confident the figure will serve as a "bridge" between the opposing factions.

In January, Syarifuddin Hasan, a member of the Democratic Party's advisory council, said a broad agreement for 4 percent was reached among parties in the ruling coalition's secretariat, since "all of them won at least 4 percent of the vote last time."

Using the 2009 election data, a 4 percent threshold would only eliminate Hanura, an opposition party that garnered 3.77 percent of the vote at the time. "We are ready to serve as a bridge. It looks like it's going in the 4 percent direction," said Democratic lawmaker Gede Pasek Suardika.

But nothing is final until the amendments are passed.

Hanura's Akbar told the Jakarta Globe that six parties – he declined to say which ones – met several weeks ago in a hotel to discuss the issue. The parties had agreed that "we are going to fight for 3 percent," he said.

Siti Zuhro, a political expert at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said, however, that 3 percent would be a hard sell to Golkar and PDI-P.

"They might agree on 4 percent, or 3.5 percent at the worst, but definitely not 3 [percent]. Especially when you read the map, because the government also wants 4," she said. "But I'm sure there will be a trade-off between political parties to reach an agreement."

Even in the event that the 4 percent threshold is passed, Siti said the eight parties that met that level in 2009 aren't necessarily safe in 2014, especially with the emergence of the new National Democrat Party (NasDem).

With NasDem – whose popularity is increasing, according to a new survey by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) – and the country's dynamic politics, Siti said a 4 percent threshold might only allow room for six political parties in the House.

Another battle

PDI-P's Arif Wibowo said his party was amenable to adjusting its stance on the threshold proposal, "but we are going to fight for the closed-list system," he added.

He was referring to the proportional representation system used in 2004, where citizens vote for the party, and the party decides who would get a seat in the legislature. In 2009, an open-list system was used, where people were allowed to vote for specific candidates and not just the parties.

PKS is also an advocate of the closed-list system, but the Democrats, United Development Party (PPP) and National Mandate Party (PAN) want to stick with the open-list format.

Golkar is pushing for a mixed-member proportional system, which could allocate seats for people to be voted into the legislature regardless of party.

Arif argued that the closed-list system was the only way to ensure the representation of women in the House would meet the 30 percent quota. At the moment, only 18 percent of House members are women.

"The closed system is simpler and easier," he said. "We will settle that issue, also the threshold figure. We have to compromise, not trade them off."

Deadlines

Initially, according to House Legislative Body chairman Ignatius Mulyono, the House wanted to pass the amendments 30 months before April 2014, when the next legislative elections will be held.

Since the House has missed that initial deadline, the working committee has set a June target instead, or 22 months before the elections.

"We have until June, but we have committed to finish it by the end of March," Ignatius said, adding that the nine political factions in the House were ready to negotiate and compromise to reach a resolution. "We are very optimistic about it," he added.

Golkar's Taufik Hidayat, the chairman of the working committee on the amendments, also said he was confident a consensus would be reached. "We are optimistic. There will be a point [where factions will eventually] compromise," he said.