Dicky Christanto, Jakarta – Good news could be on the horizon for those fed up with the lengthy political process, with the search for coalitions among the country's power brokers likely to lead to a one-round presidential election.
Political experts say the ongoing maneuvering by party leaders will result in a divide between those supporting the incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and his arch rival Megawati Soekarnoputri.
"I can predict this situation based on the trend happening right now, where parties like Gerindra and Hanura are moving closer to the PDI-P, while Islamic parties like the PKS [Prosperous Justice Party], the PKB [National Awakening Party] and the PPP [United Development Party] are looking more comfortable with the Democratic Party," University of Indonesia political researcher Ani Sucipto said Tuesday.
Yudhoyono, of the Democratic Party, beat Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) leader Megawati, then the incumbent, in the 2004 polls by a landslide.
On Tuesday, Yudhoyono met with Golkar Party leader Jusuf Kalla – his Vice President – in a move seen as Golkar's about-face, given the imminent election victory of the Democratic Party at the expense of Golkar. However, Ani said Golkar's decision to snuggle up to the Democratic Party for another five years would not change the political map.
"No matter which side Golkar chooses to partner with, it's likely the presidential election will only go to one round, as it will be hard for other parties to nominate any alternatives," she said.
As of Tuesday, the Democratic Party leads the interim vote count with 20.24 percent of votes, followed by Golkar with 15.1 percent and the PDI-P with 14.5 percent.
A coalition comprising the Democratic Party, Golkar and a number of Islamic parties will earn Yudhoyono strong political support both in the administration and in parliament – an advantage he will need to ensure an effective government.
Australian researcher Kevin Evans shared Ani's views, saying there would be no alternative candidates in the upcoming presidential election.
Not even a shared ideology among Islamic parties would encourage them to form a political bloc to challenge Yudhoyono and Megawati, he said. "[The Islamic bloc] would rather be a discourse of hope than a serious option," Evans said Tuesday on the sidelines of a discussion.
He also warned SBY would be headed for deep trouble if he chose a running mate other than Kalla. "There are several potential names, such as Akbar Tanjung from Golkar, Hidayat Nur Wahid of the PKS and Soetrisno Bachir of the PAN [National Mandate Party], but none of them meets the right criteria for SBY," he added.
Over at the PDI-P, senior executive Tjahjo Kumolo admitted the coalition with Gerindra and Hanura remained fragile.
"The coalition is still open to substantial changes. We're still communicating ideas with those two new parties. Besides, we're waiting for Golkar to make up its mind on which side it wants to ally with in the presidential election," Tjahjo said.
Democratic Party executive Ruhut Sitompul said the party had secured allegiance from the PKB and the Crescent Star Party (PBB). "We are still waiting for other parties such as the PAN, the PKS and Golkar to confirm their commitment," Ruhut added.
Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES) researcher Fajar Nursahid also predicted the post-legislative election political mapping would result in a two-horse race between Yudhoyono and Megawati in the presidential election.
He said Golkar would eventually join Yudhoyono, despite the internal rift tearing at the former New Order's political machine. "Golkar has long been a supporter of the incumbent government and is very likely to join SBY's Democratic Party in the presidential elections," Fajar said.
An exit poll conducted by LP3ES on April 9 showed Yudhoyono remained the most popular presidential candidate, regardless of the shoddy economic situation. (naf)