Abdul Khalik, Jakarta – Political analysts have said the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) has a chance of making a big leap in the 2009 legislative election due to its clean image and the failure of larger parties to deliver.
Political analysts, however, warned Thursday that though the PKS could claim back-to-back successes in the West Java and North Sumatra gubernatorial elections, the Muslim-based party was unlikely to win the legislative election.
"I think 15 percent of the vote is within reach for the PKS because of the effectiveness of its political machinery to woo more voters and the failure of bigger parties to retain their own followers," Airlangga University political scientist Daniel Sparringa said in Surabaya.
He said the two regional elections only indicated the PKS was still a "growing party".
Another political analyst, Indria Samego, said the PKS could continue to raise its votes after a strong showing in many regional elections, including the recent polls in West Java and North Sumatra.
"The party may secure up to 15 percent of the vote in the upcoming parliamentary election because it has young and militant members who contribute a lot to the party in terms of finance and recruitment," he said.
Indria, however, doubted the PKS could achieve its target of winning 20 percent of the vote in the 2009 election.
The PKS took only 7.34 percent or some 8.3 million votes in the 2004 election, far behind the Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) which garnered 21.6 percent and 18.5 percent.
An early lead in the West Java and North Sumatra elections prompted PKS president Tifatul Sembiring to announce a party target of winning 20 percent of the vote in the national election.
Party patron Hidayat Nur Wahid said he believed the PKS could meet the target if party members could maintain the public's trust.
"The results in West Java and North Sumatra demonstrated people's trust in us. This is what we are going to maintain in the next election," said Hidayat, also the People's Consultative Assembly speaker.
Besides the prospect of winning both the West Java and North Sumatra gubernatorial elections, the PKS has won elections in Depok, Bekasi regency, and Bangka Belitung and Bengkulu provinces. It is now aiming at the South Sumatra gubernatorial election.
While praising the PKS as an example of a modern party, political scientist Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the Indonesian Institute of Science warned that the party's growth was limited by the fact it was an Islamic party and won support from urban and moderate Muslim segments.
She said that different from local elections, in which candidate personality is more important than party affiliation, the parliamentary election would be determined by party ideology.
"We can't imagine, for instance, that the PKS could lure away PDI-P supporters or the PKB (National Awakening Party). It may attract Golkar supporters or young Muslims of the PPP (United Development Party), but parties like PAN (National Mandate Party) will be mostly hurt by the PKS because they target the same constituents," Dewi said.