Abdul Khalik and Lilian Budianto, Jakarta – President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono may find it difficult to run for another term should the House of Representatives approve a tighter requirement for parties to name presidential candidates.
The Golkar Party, the largest faction in the House, has proposed that only a party or a coalition of parties winning 30 percent of votes in the 2009 legislative election should be allowed to nominate presidential candidates.
A tighter requirement has similarly been proposed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which suggested a number of 25 percent.
The two major parties wanted the proposals included in a new bill on presidential elections currently under deliberation at the House. The current presidential election law requires a minimum 15 percent of votes for nominating candidates.
Yudhoyono was nominated for the presidency in 2004 by the Democratic Party (PD), which garnered only 10 percent of votes in the national legislative election that year.
Political scientists said the 30 percent minimum requirement would be good to simplify the election system, but added it would diminish Yudhoyono's chance to run for reelection.
"I believe that lawmakers aren't specifically aiming to block Yudhoyono with the proposal, because it had been discussed before 2004," Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, an analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, said Thursday.
"If the House agrees to it then Yudhoyono should be resourceful in finding parties to support him," he told The Jakarta Post.
Ikrar said Yudhoyono's chances of running again would depend on how many votes the party or parties backing him could get in the legislative elections.
The Golkar and the PDI-P argued the tighter requirement was needed to create a stable administration in the future and simplify the electoral system.
"A government supported by a big number of lawmakers at the House will make for a stable administration," Golkar lawmaker Hari Azhar Azis said.
Ganjar Pranowo of the PDI-P agreed that to avoid repeating the current situation in which Yudhoyono had a weak position vis a vis the House because he only secured support from a small party, the president must be backed by major factions in the House.
Hari said Golkar and the PDI-P could easily compromise to push the agenda through. He and Ganjar quickly dismissed allegations that major parties were attempting to sideline smaller parties or prevent Yudhoyono from running in the next presidential race.
Critics have said if approved by the House the new mechanism would also close the doors for new figures to contest the presidential election.
Golkar won 28 percent of votes and the PDI-P grabbed 22.7 percent in the 2004 parliamentary election. With the two largest parties having a combined 277 of the House's 550 seats, they would win a vote for a revised regulation to be included in the new presidential election bill.
Other parties, including the United Development Party (PPP), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN), received 10.5 percent, 9.8 percent and 8.5 percent of votes in 2004, respectively. The remaining two parties, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Crescent Star Party, garnered 8.4 percent and 2 percent each.
Based on these results, under the proposed regulation no minor parties would be entitled to nominate presidential candidates without establishing a coalition. The 2009 presidential election would see a maximum of three candidates should the new mechanism be included in the new draft law.
The proposed mechanism was rejected by all minor parties. The PPP, PAN and the PD have said they all wanted a 15 percent minimum requirement. The PKB has insisted the requirement be set at only 2.5 percent in accordance with the parliamentary threshold stipulated in the newly endorsed legislative election law.