Jakarta – Experts warn Indonesians of the massive spread of disease due to uncertain climate patterns caused by global warming.

The head of the Center of Environment and Sustainable Development for Indonesia, from Griffith University, in Australia, Dr. Umar Fahmi Achmadi, said the global warming phenomenon would affect health in Indonesia by increasing the occurrence of disease.

"The effect of global warming will not come to an end after disrupting the pattern of the earth's climate. It will also change the behavior of humans as well as the behavior of disease vectors. Eventually that will increase the outbreak of communicable diseases," Umar told a discussion held by the Indonesian Medical Association here Tuesday.

Umar said climate change would inevitably affect the two main health determinants of human population and environment.

"One of the most obvious effects of the global warming phenomenon is the rise of the earth's temperature, which has already caused some substantial changes in daily weather conditions, like temperature, humidity, wind movement and light," he said.

"All of those things will shape new conditions for every environmental medium, like water, air and foodstuffs, as well as animals and humans. Disease vectors, like parasites, have become more brutal and harder to manage."

Conditions can be expected to worsen due to the extreme weather caused by global warming.

"The accelerating process of seawater evaporation will increase the probability of tropical storms, floods and droughts. All of these will affect water-borne diseases like diarrhea, typhoid, cholera, malaria and leptospyrosis."

Umar also cited some examples of vector-borne disease outbreaks in Indonesia related to climate change. He mentioned the malaria outbreaks in Irian Jaya, in 1997; Yogyakarta, in 1998; North Sumatra, also in 1998; and South Kalimantan, in 1999. He also mentioned the outbreak of dengue fever in all parts of Indonesia in 1998.

Public health and preventive medicine expert, Dr. Charles Suryadi, said one step the Indonesian government could take would be to prepare adaptation and mitigation programs on local, regional and national levels.

"The best program is the one that is based on local community. That's why we need to translate the big plan into smaller agendas," he said.

Both Umar and Charles agreed that Indonesia Health Vision 2010 was relevant for anticipating the impact of global warming.

However, the program has to be transformed into clear, practical action plans that can actually be implemented, at the very least at the municipal level. The reason: because every municipality in Indonesia has to overcome its specific problems using its individual capabilities and resources.

"It's all right if the government wants to make a new health plan, but it must be based on the 2010 Vision," said Umar.

Health Vision 2010 foresees Indonesians living a healthy lifestyle, in a healthy environment, with access to healthcare that is medically sound and fairly administered. This is to be achieved though the implementation of programs like Healthy Regency 2010 and Healthy City 2010. (uwi)