Ridwan Max Sijabat, Jakarta – The threat by Golkar Party politicians to withdraw support for the government in protest over the establishment of a controversial advisory team is a bluff, analysts say.
Arbi Sanit and Burhan Effendy, political analysts from the University of Indonesia and the State Islamic University respectively, said Golkar would maintain its politicians in President Susilo Yudhoyono's Cabinet until their term expired in 2009.
"Golkar politicians are making a lot of noise with the aim of forcing President Yudhoyono to reshuffle the Cabinet in the hope that Golkar could place more of its politicians there," Burhan said.
Golkar politicians have been angered by Yudhoyono's establishment of the Presidential Unit for Management of Reform Programs (UKP3R) without consultation with Golkar leader and Vice President Jusuf Kalla.
Marsillam Simanjuntak, who chairs the team, is a seasoned administrator and Golkar critic.
Presidential spokesman Andi Mallarangeng told The Jakarta Post Sunday the President's new team continued to work. Andi denied reports the team's activities had been frozen after Kalla openly expressed his objection to it on Friday.
Andi said last Friday's meeting between Yudhoyono and Kalla at the state palace did not decide to dismantle the new unit. "(The unit) is still working, and I need to stress again that the unit, whatever it functions for, does not overlap with the (powers of) Cabinet," he said.
The new unit could be disbanded when the law on the presidential board of advisors is passed, but that decision would depend on the President's decision, Andi said.
Yudhoyono is scheduled to hold a Cabinet meeting Monday, but it was unclear if the unit's head, Marsillam Simanjuntak, would attend as mandated by the presidential decree establishing the team. Marsillam was not available for comment.
Burhan predicted that a problem may occur in 2008 when Kalla runs for president and challenges Yudhoyono, who will likely seek a second term. Arbi doubts the effectiveness of the newly established team.
"We have already had countless new institutions but they are ineffective. The President should know that the main problem is not the need for new institutions but the way he leads the nation. The President has talked too much and held too many meetings but moved too slowly and had no courage to take concrete actions to solve major problems the nation is facing," he said.
Golkar legislator Yudhi Chrisnandi, a confidante of Kalla, warned that unless Yudhoyono canceled the team, Golkar could withdraw its support for the government and become an opposition party.
"The issue will be raised in the Golkar leadership meeting on Nov. 13-16. So far 16 Golkar chapters have filed a protest about the special team's establishment," he said.
Among other senior Golkar officials disappointed with the establishment of the team is deputy chairman Agung Laksono, who is also House speaker.
Putting a different slant on the issue, Golkar legislator Akil Mochtar said that only Kalla confidantes were disappointed with the establishment of the team but not Golkar politicians from other camps. "Golkar will not drop its support for the government,"' he asserted.