Fabio Scarpello, Jakarta – Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono may be smiling after his deputy won the leadership of the powerful Golkar Party at the end of a dramatic four-day national congress that ended in the resort island of Bali on Sunday. But many wonder how long the president's joy will last.
Yusuf Kalla, a wealthy businessman who stood as Yudhoyono's vice-presidential running mate in the September elections, beat incumbent Akbar Tanjung by 167 votes to clinch the leadership of the party founded as a political vehicle for ex-dictator Suharto. Kalla garnered 326 of the 484 votes up for grabs, while Tanjung managed just 156. With Kalla at the helm, Golkar is expected to switch sides in the lower House of Representatives where, until now, it has blocked most government-sponsored bills.
For the moment, Golkar is the main party in the opposition Nationhood Coalition, which includes the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), led by former president Megawati Sukarnoputri; the National Awakening Party; and a number of smaller parties. The coalition, which controls the majority of the seats in the 550-seat legislature, pledged to work as a stern counter-power to the president, who took office on October 20.
While Kalla's election to the Golkar leadership seems to guarantee that the government will run smoothly for now, it also raises concerns of a rubber-stamp legislature. His victory, which offers benefits for Yudhoyono now, also could lead to a later battle of between the two. "This [victory] will accumulate all the power in Kalla's hands. It could complicate [Yudhoyono's] relationship with him," Mohammad Qodari of the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) was quoted by Reuters as saying.
Yudhoyono's present predicament
Despite winning a landslide people's mandate in Indonesia's first direct presidential polls, Yudhoyono has the support of only 233 seats, fewer than half the seats in the legislature. With Kalla now as Golkar leader, Yudhoyono can be assured of an additional 275 parliamentary seats from that party, thus easing his headache with the opposition.
Commenting on Golkar's membership within the Nationhood Coalition, Kalla told reporters: "The alliance was not something permanent. That was before and now things have changed."
Beyond the immediate benefits, however, many believe the vice president has become too powerful for his position and represents a real threat to Yudhoyono's own presidential authority. Kalla has changed the cards on the table and transformed the role of the vice president from a ceremonial position into a real power base.
According to Mohammad, Kalla's victory was "a double-edged sword" for Yudhoyono. "Right now, we have two suns in the country. If they work together shining on Indonesia, it will be good for the people ... But if they don't, they will burn the people," Mohammad told the Jakarta Post newspaper.
Kalla – a Sulawesi-born, wealthy and well-connected businessman who contributed to the presidential campaign with his own money – is credited with diverting precious votes away from Golkar to Yudhoyono's tiny Democratic Party during the presidential race. This resulted in the dismal performance of Golkar's own candidate, retired army General Wiranto.
Wiranto did not make it beyond the first round of polls in July, while the Yudhoyono-Kalla team went on to win the election, beating former Megawati in a landslide at September's runoff. Before the runoff, Golkar leader Tanjung implored party members to support Megawati – a decision that virtually split the party and led various factions to defy him openly in order to throw their support behind the Yudhoyono-Kalla duo.
After the election, Kalla asserted his position during the cabinet make-up when he managed to push through more than one of his favorite candidates. Among them was none other than the controversial Aburizal Bakrie, himself a Golkar member and a corporate businessman, who was given the influential position of coordinating minister for the economy.
Kalla now holds the key to the country's most powerful party, which boasts 23% of the seats in Indonesia's fractured 550-member parliament, while Yudhoyono's party only holds 10%. Without a doubt, Golkar's influence also will grow in the years following Kalla's victory, what amounts to the party's first real return to the ruling fold since the 1999 elections pushed it into the ranks of the opposition. However, not many are happy with this scenario.
"Golkar has again become the ruling party and the Nationhood Coalition has collapsed," Sukardi Rinakit, executive director of the Jakarta-based Center for Political Studies, told reporters. Sukardi said Kalla's election ensured that government policies and programs would run smoothly, but the House of Representatives may cease being critical of the government.
"The House may again become a rubber stamp, as it was during the New Order era [under Suharto] as Golkar may completely support the government," Sukardi said after the chaotic party session, where security guards were called in to prevent Kalla and Tanjung supporters from clashing.
In a bid not to allow the Golkar victory to go to his head, House Majority Leader Hidayat Nur Wahid offered some words of advice to Kalla: "He has to realize that he wasn't elected as vice president because of his support for Golkar. He was elected by people with different political backgrounds," Nur Wahid said. "Indonesians from opposition parties also supported him. "I hope he doesn't lose sight of that and works towards uniting everyone in the country." (Inter Press Service)