Jakarta – An independent political research organization predicted here Tuesday that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), winner of the first round of Indonesia's first-ever direct presidential election last July 5, will also prevail in the runoff poll on September 20.
The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) said according to a sruvey it had conducted, SBY would win 68 per cent of the votes in September, far surpassing the 23 per cent his only rival, incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri, would collect.
The LSI survey was carried out on July 17-19 in 150 villages across the country covering 1,190 respondents. The LSI used a "multi stage random sampling" method in the survey with a sampling error of approximately three, LSI's research director, Muhammad Qodari, said.
Megawati would win a smaller number of votes than in the first round of the election when she bagged 26 per cent of the votes, he said.
Nine per cent of the respondents in the survey said they had yet to make up their mind or refused to divulge their preference saying it was "secret".
The survey showed SBY who is pairing up with Yusuf Kalla is more popular than Megawati among respondents classified according to gender (men or women). SBY was also favored by 73 per cent of Moslem voters while Megawati enjoyed the support of only 18 per cent of them.
But Megawati was more preferred over SBY among Christian and Hindu voters.
According to the survey, SBY would win in all of Indonesia's provinces and Megawati only in Bali, West and East Nusa Tenggara.
Sixty-eight per cent of Golkar Party supporters as well as most of Moslem-based parties such as PKB,PPP, PKS and PAN were also predicted to vote for SBY.
Likewise, most members of Indonesia's largest Islamic organization, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) were also expected to cast their votes for SBY although Megawati's running mate, Hasyim Muzadi, was the NU's non-active chairman.
Seventy-seven per cent of NU members were predicted to vote for SBY and only 16 per cent for Megawati. Most members of the second largest Islamic organization, Muhammadiyah, would also choose SBY (69 per cent) while Megawati would win the support of only 13 per cent.
Speaking on the same occasion, political observer Indria Samego said Megawati and her success team would have to think very hard af a way to disprove LSI's prediction, adding no political party elite would be able to influence their supporters' choice.