APSN Banner

'Ordinary' candidate wins extraordinary support

Source
Financial Times (UK) - June 18, 2004

Shawn Donnan and Taufan Hidayat – The trap worked like a charm. A sly detour imposed on the campaign convoy by local police, a handful of supporters brave enough to step into traffic and force it to a stop, and before Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's aides could protest too much, he was being bundled from his bus and into a nearby home to address a giddy gathering.

"This is too much. I am only an ordinary human being," Mr Yudhoyono protested in vain 20 minutes later after effusive introductions from local dignitaries.

But with campaigning under way for the July 5 first round of presidential elections in Indonesia, Mr Yudhoyono is emerging as a figure anything but ordinary. On the back of an image loaded with gravitas, the former Suharto-era general has built what looks like an unassailable lead in opinion polls.

Polls show him with more than 40 per cent support among the country's 150m registered voters, while his main rivals in the five-candidate field – incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri and former defence minister General Wiranto – lag far behind.

His aides expect him to struggle to garner the simple majority he needs to avoid a September run-off with the number two finisher. Pollsters, however, say disappointment with Mrs Megawati's administration and discomfort with General Wiranto's human rights record (a UN-backed court has issued a warrant for his arrest in connection with a 1999 massacre in East Timor) are rife and "SBY", as he is known to most Indonesians, is a clear favourite.

Mr Yudhoyono's popularity is partly drawn from his role in recent years as the chief security minister for the notoriously shy Mrs Megawati, during which time he became the earnest and reassuring face of her administration in times of crisis. "He is always saying what she should be saying," Frans Seda, one of Mrs Megawati's top advisers, grumbled in an interview earlier this year. Mr Yudhoyono has built on that image since leaving her administration in March.

He has promised a "second wave" of reforms and to address the current appalling climate for domestic and foreign investors, and the country's endemic corruption. And to tackle security concerns such as terrorism, offering "peace, justice, and prosperity" to Indonesians worn down by the country's chaotic entry into democracy following the 1998 fall of strongman Suharto.

Mr Yudhoyono has also sought to distance himself from his military past and his former colleague, Gen Wiranto, and to address concerns over the possibility of a Suharto-era general ascending to the presidency. "I do hate also militarism," he told the Financial Times in a pre-campaign interview.

Diplomats in Jakarta liken the prospect of a Yudhoyono presidency to that of Fidel Ramos, the respected former Philippines president. He is also seen by most as a preferable option to Gen Wiranto, the candidate of Mr Suharto's Golkar party, at a time when many see the need for a firm hand to take Indonesia forward.

On the campaign trail, Mr Yudhoyono has opted for intimate, town hall-style meetings over the raucous rallies usually associated with electioneering in the world's largest Muslim constituency.

On a bus tour through key Javanese battlegrounds this week, he entertained questions from voters on topics ranging from his recent pilgrimage to Mecca to the price of fertiliser. He had lunch with religious leaders at a roadside restaurant and crooned a famous Indonesian love song for a noisy audience at another lunch less than an hour later.

He also sought, gently, to reduce expectations for what his election would mean. "There are a lot of problems in this nation," he told the audience. "It will not be easy to solve them."

But soaring expectations may be hard to suppress. As his rivals struggle to generate enthusiasm for their campaigns, the simple passing of Mr Yudhoyono's bus – with its broken-down massage chair and "Together We Can" slogan on the bumper – draws effusive crowds.

Outside an Islamic boarding school on Tuesday, Mr Yudhoyono greeted supporters as the sun set over paddy fields and swallows circled overhead.

Idu Farida, one of the waiting crowd, gushed: "He is wise and fair. You can see it in his eyes. All of my family – my mother, my grandmother, all of them – like SBY. We all like him very much."

[Additional reporting by Taufan Hidayat.]

Country