Robert Go, Jakarta – In the minds of those supporting incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri, her running mate Hasyim Muzadi is not only a leader of Muslims, but also one who will deliver millions of votes come the presidential election on July 5.

Yesterday, one adviser to Ms Megawati told The Straits Times that at least half of the Nadhlatul Ulama (NU), the 40-million-strong group which Mr Hasyim leads, will support the President-cleric pairing. Another Megawati-camp figure said he will bet his car, house or almost anything else he owns on the likelihood that Mr Hasyim could pull in at least 10 million votes.

At least in NU's stronghold and Mr Hasyim's personal home turf of East Java, these Megawati aides said, the cleric will be able to pull strings, collect on old favours, cajole and threaten, and ultimately rally support for the embattled President.

And a part of the expectation is that he can edge out Mr Solahuddin Wahid, vice-presidential candidate for retired general Wiranto and the brother of former president Abdurrahman Wahid, in the battle for NU's hearts and minds.

Their reasoning is simple. Mr Solahuddin is said to have looser ties with pesantrens, the traditional Islamic boarding schools that have taught millions of the country's Muslims. Mr Hasyim, on the other hand, rose through NU's basic ranks and has decades of relationships with the organisation's powerful religious teachers.

Political analyst Hermawan Sulistyo said: "It is clear which candidate NU's masses will prefer. Hasyim is one of them. He is not a blue blood of the organisation like Solahuddin's family." He was referring to the fact that Mr Abdurrahman and Mr Solahuddin are grandsons of NU founder Hasyim Ashari.

Mr Hermawan's arguments continued: In this day and age when Indonesians are discovering a new democracy, there are benefits in being seen as a common man instead of an aristocrat.

There is also the fact that Mr Wiranto, while weighing potential running mates last month, was courting Mr Hasyim aggressively, and selected Mr Solahuddin only after the former chose to go with Ms Megawati.

But predicting how the NU masses would vote remains difficult. The organisation has proved to be capable of splits, with blurred lines of division and uncertain loyalties.

Mr Abdurrahman, who once led the group, still has considerable influence with its leaders, who can in turn sway how regular folks choose on July 5.

Mr Sukardi Rinakit of the Centre for Political Studies in Jakarta said: "Mr Hasyim will get some millions of NU votes, but it will be tough to tell the percentage."