Keith Andrew Bettinger, Washington – The unilateralism and anti-terror policies of the United States are increasingly damaging its relations with the largest Muslim nation in the world, Indonesia, where many view the "war on terror" as anti-Islam. Meanwhile, China is quietly moving closer to the archipelago.
Many observers have suggested that Indonesia, as a moderate Muslim nation, could play a greater role in US-led actions by providing peacekeepers to operations associated with the "war on terror", thereby adding legitimacy and decreasing the casualties in situations such as postwar Iraq. However, US policies are causing domestic difficulties for moderate Muslim states. This, coupled with the rise of China and improving relations between that country and Indonesia, could be a harbinger of a new regional power and an alternative to the US-led global order.
From an Indonesian perspective, China has always posed the most serious threat to regional security. This stems from the perception that Beijing supported the failed coup by the Indonesian Communist Party in 1965, an allegation it has always denied. When the Suharto regime came to power, one of its first actions was to sever relations with China. During this time Indonesia's wealthy Chinese minority suffered attacks, scapegoating, and an official persecution of its heritage, including the outlawing of Chinese characters.
Although the relationship has been bumpy since Indonesian independence, the situation has improved since ties were normalized in 1990. The 1999 election of president Abdurrahman Wahid ushered in a new era of cooperation; Wahid declared that Indonesia-China relations were a priority and made China the destination for his first official trip abroad. In 2000, a memorandum of understanding was signed in the fields of politics, economics, science and tourism, and in 2001 Indonesia became an officially sanctioned tourist destination for Chinese vacationers. The current Indonesian president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, has furthered the relationship, pledging to improve military links with Russia and China.
China seems to be employing a coherent strategy to improve ties with Indonesia. In the past, China suffered from a lack of vision in its relations with neighbors. This is in part due to its ambiguous position during the Cold War. It is also owing to the inward focus that China had for so long. Yang Jinn, counselor for the political section of the Chinese embassy in Washington, says relations between the two nations were rough in the beginning because China's foreign policy was driven by ideological considerations. However, Deng Xiaoping brought about a new pragmatism in 1979. Since the 1980s China has focused on more ad hoc, symbiotic relations. Now, "China seeks multi-layered and multifaceted relations with its neighbors", Jinn said. "The priority concern for the Chinese government is economic development for our people, so we need a stable environment and good neighborly relations and partnerships."
Thus far, Indonesia's interest in China has been limited to trade and economic issues. Indonesia has been reluctant to take initiatives outside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). However, trade between the two nations has grown sharply, quadrupling from US$2 billion in 1992 to $8 billion a decade later.
There is still room for growth, though, and both nations have something to bring to the table that makes them natural partners. With a dynamic, growing economy, China expects its energy needs to increase dramatically in the future. Indonesia's massive reserves of liquefied natural gas in West Papua could help supply China's increasing needs. Indonesia has won some supply contracts, but lost a massive tender to Australia in 2001 and is looking for more business with China.
On the other hand, China's businesses are looking outward for investment opportunities, following the advice of former president Jiang Zemin to "go out". Deals have already been reached between Chinese and Indonesian firms in the fields of telecommunications and electric-power plants. Although Western investors have known for years that Indonesia has enormous growth potential, lack of infrastructure has hampered foreign direct investment.
The deals with China bring with them huge investments in infrastructure, which should improve Jakarta's prospects for the future. The Indonesian government, severely short of cash, is beginning to push this sort of private investment in infrastructure. Chinese operators have an advantage over their Western counterparts in that they have experience in the creation of telecom networks under developing-country constraints.
These increasing economic ties will inevitably lead to a greater political understanding between the two nations, decreasing regional suspicion of China and increasing its latitude in endeavors abroad. According to Marvin Ott of the National War College, "China's natural strategic ambition is to look south to a region of opportunity." Ott called China's approach to Indonesia over the past five years "a thing of beauty".
All of this means that the US stands to lose its influence in the region. "Since Vietnam, Southeast Asia has been off the map for the US strategic community," Ott said. Whereas the US has traditionally focused on global-oriented strategies, beginning with containment during the Cold War and now the "war on terror", China's ad hoc approach holds more appeal to many nations. In contrast to the apparent US view of developing nations as pawns in a geopolitical chess match, China's approach has economic benefits that a shaky government can take to its people.
In addition, there is a certain degree of political quid pro quo in bilateral relations. Jinn says China supports Indonesia's efforts to safeguard its sovereignty, as well as its campaign against "internal terror". This is very significant to Indonesia, which faces separatist challenges from Aceh and West Papua. In return, Indonesia has always held a "one China" policy, and in 2001 refused a request for an official visit by Taiwan's head of state. "Our integration is only starting," Jinn said.
China's status as a developing nation is an advantage in its relations with nations such as Indonesia, because China's level of development is on par with nations in ASEAN, making it easier to identify areas of potential partnership.
US policy, on the other hand, seems to be moving in the opposite direction. Washington has called for Beijing to revalue its currency to alleviate its trade deficit with China. This stance is drawing flak from ASEAN nations, including Indonesia, whose trade surpluses with China would be damaged by a stronger yuan. The US has been criticized for not doing enough for developing countries, creating a vacuum that China will eventually fill.
China is also seen to be more accommodating than the US. This is especially apparent in the area of human rights. Whereas Washington is especially vigilant on issues such as labor standards and human trafficking, China hasn't signed on to any international human rights protocols or agreements. While it is US law to issue annual reports on the progress of other nations, and Washington routinely threatens sanctions for perceived offenders, China has more of a "don't ask, don't tell" approach.
Lanxin Xiang, Henry Kissinger professor for international relations at the Library of Congress, says China's relations are guided by a philosophy of mutual prosperity, "get rich together" cooperation in which a rising tide lifts all boats, rather than a zero-sum game realpolitik perspective. The US has made Southeast Asia a second front in the "war on terror", and President George W Bush recently declared that nations not sharing the US commitment to democracy are no longer friends. China understands that Indonesia and ASEAN pose no strategic threat, and is seeking to build bridges regardless of political philosophies.
"The US should 'de-mustify' its relations with other countries," said James Castle, an American who has been doing business in Indonesia for years and is widely regarded as an expert on the Indonesian economy. "Other countries get tired of hearing the US say 'You must deregulate'. China doesn't say those things."
Castle also suggested that Western firms are starting to lose out on deals in Asia because they are bogged down by their dependence on contracts and rules. Asian firms, he said, are more flexible and are not crippled by a lack of clarity inherent in some business deals. They are more willing to accept risk. Castle said that Indonesia's slow pace of reform scares off many US businesses, whereas more nimble firms from China and Japan are winning big. "US business will be sidelined for the next five years in Indonesia."
What happens in the future remains to be seen. Indonesia has elections coming up in 2004, and China has a new president, Hu Jintao. However, some things are certain. China wants to be a great power, and seems to be seeking a sphere of influence in Southeast Asia. It needs resources, markets and partners. Its externally oriented policy will continue to put it into conflict with US strategic interests, which will continue to stress security and "Western values", causing backlashes within developing nations.
In pursuing better relations with its neighbors, China has placed itself in a good position vis-a-vis the US. It has a more active diplomacy, and is reinventing itself as an alternative to the US. China is becoming the nation of multilateralism. It is taking a greater role in the United Nations, and is sponsoring regional initiatives such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and ASEAN+3. It advocates cooperative solutions to problems such as the North Korean nuclear crisis.
China wants to open economies for mutual benefit with other nations. In an age where wealthy nations are constantly criticized for unfair trading practices and closing their markets, China is an alternative. Whereas Western nations such as the US often link economic concessions to political conditions, China has no such conditions.
Indonesia, with its massive population and clear challenges, will have to make a several choices. Will the future bring increasing cooperation with the US, which entails domestic unrest over US policies in the Middle East, or will Indonesia instead focus on economic development, seeking partnerships with nations that can improve the living standards of its people. Will Indonesia seek to counterbalance China, or rather join the camp of the giant to the north?
While the US seems content to pursue policies that alienate its allies, China is seeking to cultivate new friendships. It is perhaps indicative of the new China that in its recent foray into space, its first astronaut carried with him two flags: one the familiar red and yellow national banner, the other the blue and white of the United Nations.
[Keith Andrew Bettinger has a master's degree in international affairs from George Washington Universtiy with concentration in Asian studies.]