[A leading Indonesian analyst says it will take decades to push the Indonesian military out of Indonesian politics. The former foreign policy advisor to former President B.J. Habibie says getting proper civilian control over Indonesia's army will be crucial to the transition to democracy. She says one problem in getting civilian control is that Indonesia's Government provides only one-third of the military's budget.]

Transcript:

Anwar: Probably one of the most difficult challenges faced by Indonesia now is the fact that since the early days of independence, the military had not been entirely dependent on the government for the budget. In fact as you know the idea from the very beginning was that the state could not really afford to pay the military so that the military commanders, regional commanders had to make various arrangements, including being engaged in business, smuggling and so on, simply to pay their troops, to buy uniforms for them, to pay salaries and to buy weapons. And even when Indonesia had substantial economic growth the defence budget as a whole was still one of the lowest in Asia. And now it is said that 35 percent only on budget and Indonesia still does not have the economic wherewithal to pay the military. So this is a challenge for us because if we really want to ensure that the military becomes professional, that is that the military only engages in areas which they're supposed to engage, that is on regional defence and not in politics and not in economics, we have to be able to pay them.

Dobell: Has any institution in Indonesia though got the strength to attack the military's economic empire?

Anwar: Well it's not the problem of attacking the empire. I think the military would be quite willing to give up their foundations if there is compensation. So this is not the case that the military is trying to hold on to and resisting government's attempt to take them away from that. The military will say we would be happier if we don't have to worry about where to make ends meet.

Dobell: Is it possible yet to talk about civilian control of the Indonesian military, even President Megawati seems to be quite deferential still to the military structures?

Anwar: Well besides the business issues set down there are also problems, and this is not the military problem it's more the civilian problems. In order to have civilian oversight of the military clearly the civilians themselves, the civilian masters have to have some expertise in deciding what the military has to do, how much money they should earn, what the budget should be spent upon and so on, and unfortunately at the moment Indonesia does not have that civilian expertise yet. Because for over 30 years strategic issues, security issues, defence issues and military issues are very much the private domain of the military, not very many civilians have been included in their activity. So in terms of knowledge there is a huge gap.

Dobell: So the military still runs its own fate, in a way.

Anwar: So the military runs its own fate. For example during this reform era it is the government who should take the lead in reforming the military, it should be the minister of defence who should take the lead in re-writing the military, the defence doctrine and so on. That leadership is very absent at the moment and also there is this rather self-serving attitude towards the military while the civilian leaders agree on civilian control a lot of them don't talk about objectives of that control. That's more like subjective civilian control. For example like Abdurrahman Wahid he wanted to control the military but under his own political patronage, and when civilians are competing against other civilians and when they are probably losing out the argument a number of them are still quite willing to bring in the military into the debate.

Dobell: How much is Indonesia's military still the big question mark over the democratic transition that Indonesia is going through, how much if things don't go well is it the military that Indonesia has to fear?

Anwar: I would argue that it is not so much that it is the military that we have to fear but the fact that the military will be the beneficiary if the civilians make a mess of it. So it's not like saying that the military is just waiting in the wings, for example to see the civilians making mistakes and then they will then grab back power, I don't see that as happening. I'm quite optimistic that the Indonesian military is quite willing to guide the democratic process as long as they see that it's going in the right direction. As I say that you know there is still very ingrained in the military that it is the guardian of the state, that it knows what is best for the country. So among the military I think there's still this ideology that if the civilians don't do well then the military should take responsibility. But we've not had a case of outright coup d'etat in Indonesia or anything like that so I don't think that anything like that is going to happen. But the fear is that if the economic situation for example were to worsen, if there is political instability, if the country is faced with security threats, then it is just possible that the civilians in their inability to come to decisions would themselves turn to the military rather than the military taking advantage of their position.