Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – In a bid to prevent separatist and ethnic conflicts from fragmenting Indonesia, the government plans to rotate up to 50 battalions through the restive provinces of Aceh and Irian Jaya and hotspots in Maluku, Sulawesi and West Kalimantan, security chief Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said.

Military spokesman Rear Air Marshal Graito Usodo said yesterday the military and police had been asked to prepare 50 battalions, or approximately 32,500 men, for deployment.

"They will be sent to face rising problems in the field, especially those linked to national disintegration," he said.

While most of the troops would be deployed from the main island of Java, many would also be moved from adjacent provinces. Marshal Graito said the total figure would also include replacement of troops already serving in the hotspots.

Mr Susilo, Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs, on Sunday told Media Indonesia that the new move was to assist in resolving conflicts particularly in those areas where separatist conflicts were being fought.

"This is solely to accelerate the process of a peaceful settlement to the conflicts, especially in Aceh and Irian Jaya," he said.

The move to reduce the concentration of troops in Jakarta and Java also suggests the government expects less outbreaks of violence following the peaceful presidential changeover in July, and the winding down of anti-American demonstrations.

However, political analysts have warned that the troop deployment could increase conflicts, particularly in both Aceh and Irian Jaya, where support for independence is high.

Commentators also expressed concern that troops would be ineffective or commit abuses if they were not trained for such conflicts or paid properly. One analyst said the military reports that it gives 20,000 rupiah (S$3.6) per soldier per day for daily living, but in the field troops report they only get 7,500 rupiah. So they sell ganja in Aceh, for instance, the analyst added.

Other analysts pointed out that troop deployments are already high in some hotspots. For example Aceh, where more than 1,600 people were killed this year, already totals 30,000 police and military troops. Another analyst said only army troops and not police should be sent to Aceh, where they were fighting armed rebels.

Police, he said, could be better deployed to prevent violence from erupting in areas such as Sambas, West Kalimantan, where residents were not already fighting a guerilla war.

While the government stressed it would continue to pursue political negotiations to resolve conflicts in Aceh and Irian Jaya, analysts fear that President Megawati Sukarnoputri, who has vowed to prevent the disintegration of Indonesia, will now focus on military force rather than negotiation.

"A peaceful process to solve the conflict must be in our mind together, we are ready for dialogue ... but it must be within the framework of unity of the nation," said Mr Susilo, who said Jakarta was still willing to talk to Aceh's rebel movement.

Suggested political and military analyst Ikra Nusabakti: "Rather than spend a lot of money and effort on sending thousands of troops, it is better to implement development policy. If we can't win on the battlefield it is better to win the hearts of the people," he said.