Dan Murphy – Ask the average Indonesian who he'd like as his next president and he'll tell you Megawati Sukarnoputri. Ask him why, and he'll cite her pedigree as daughter of Sukarno – father of the nation and champion of the poor. Now, ask what her policies are. "She's for the little people," says Nahuruddin, a street-side food vendor in central Jakarta. "She's going to lower prices."
The answer rarely gets more precise than that. It reflects exactly the high economic expectations Indonesians will have if Megawati takes the presidency. Many Indonesians have faith that her presence alone will make things better.
In this, she resembles Corazon Aquino, who was elected president during the heady days of the Philippines' People Power revolution of 1986. Both women were thrust to prominence because of their family ties – Aquino's husband was assassinated politician Benigno Aquino. Like Megawati, Aquino was a political novice with few administrative skills. As such, the Aquino presidency may foreshadow the challenges that lie ahead for Megawati.
Aquino's vast popularity began to sink the moment she was forced to define herself through her policies. She took over an economy which had been contracting 10% annually yet she failed to address fundamental economic problems because of opposition to land reform by the business and political elite. A rebellious parliament and a series of attempted coups also took their toll. By the late 1980s, when the rest of Southeast Asia was growing at 5% a year, the Philippines was crawling along at just 2.4%.
Many view a Megawati presidency as the best bet for restoring legitimacy to the government in the eyes of the people. But it's not likely to meet the economic expectations of folk like Nahuruddin in the near future.