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Cracks beneath Golkar's smooth facade?

Source
USIS foreign media reaction report - June 5, 1997

The record margin achieved by Indonesia's ruling Golkar Party in parliamentary elections in that country last week moved foreign analysts to weigh in with their assessments of the vote–which most saw as less than fair–and to comment on prospects for the future of yet another five-year term for President Soeharto. By far the most copious commentary came from the Indonesian media, which decried the violence that had characterized the election campaign and continued to call for "economic and political reform" and more "accountability" on the part of Golkar and the Indonesian Armed Forces (ABRI) factions within the parliament. Indonesian papers also focused on the "re-vote"–the first ever in Indonesia's post-colonial history- -held yesterday on the island of Madura just off the northeast coast of Java. Concern for Indonesia's image following riots that marred the voting on Madura moved the pro-government Indonesia Times to state: "How the government handles the Madura case will become a yardstick of Indonesia's credibility in canvassing its people's will and aspirations."

Reflecting on the overall election campaign, the dominant theme in the Indonesian media was that violence was the by-product of a system that "polarizes" the haves and the have-nots and allows citizens little room to express their political aspirations. The leading, independent Jakarta Post judged that "violence has arisen as an expression of resistance against the state's monopoly on violence," and, in a separate editorial, asserted: "The key to a democratic future for Indonesia is the empowerment of its civil society." Leading, independent Kompas was also outspoken in saying that "political parties should be allowed to choose their own leaders," a reference to the ousting of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) leader, Megawati Sukarnoputri, last July, which led to widespread, violent demonstrations in Jakarta. Muslim intellectual Republika concurred, predicting: "The shrinking of the PDI will also impede the public from voicing their aspirations...running counter to their growing desire for pluralism." Even a government-oriented daily, the Indonesian Observer, featured this fierce commentary by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Roeslan Abdulgani: "What is conspicuous in [the people's] eyes is the social discrepancy...the arbitrariness, and the arrogance of the bureaucracy, from the top right down to the bottom, together with the conspicuous corruption, collusion, perversion of authority, commercialism and nepotism.... The unity and integrity of the nation, country and state are threatened."

Editorials elsewhere voiced criticism of the Indonesian president for not allowing a more open, democratic process. New Delhi's centrist Hindu stressed, as did others, that "the aging Soeharto" owes it to his country to "introduce political reforms and let some fresh air in." Still others predicted a "slow but sure" movement toward "eventual rebellion, coup d'etat or revolution" if the Indonesian government fails to stem corruption and if President Soeharto, who turns 76 this month, does not set up a mechanism for a smooth transfer of power after more than 30 years in office.

This survey is based on 32 reports from 8 countries, May 29 - June 5. Editor: Kathleen J. Brahney

'Re-vote in sampang'

Muslim intellectual Republika opined (6/5): "The Sampang, Madura, case [of having to hold a re-vote at more than 80 polling stations] would not have happened had we anticipated such events early on. The election system should have been more professionally organized so as to prevent such errors. It should have worked well enough to keep even the slightest prejudice from developing."

'Economic stability'

In the view of the leading, independent Jakarta Post (6/4): "The nation's economic development has reached the stage where political reform and a highly accountable government or good governance have become a pre-condition for sustaining growth."

'Why do violent incidents occur?'

The Jakarta Post also carried (6/4) an op-ed piece by Makmur Keliat, who offered this opinion: "Violence is partly a product of the 'shortcut culture' prevailing in Indonesian society, articulated by the have-nots in the form of mobs. Since, by definition, the state is the sole institution in society that has the legitimate right to...exercise force on all individuals who reside within its jurisdiction, it comes as no surprise that violence has arisen as an expression of resistance against the state's monopoly on violence."

'Rerun in Madura'

The pro-government Indonesia Times pointed out (6/3): "Tomorrow the government is scheduled to repeat voting in a few places located in Sampang, Madura. The decision was taken amid a security alert following riots taking place in Sampang, Pamekasan and Sumenep.... The Madura case will surely become symbolic of government flexibility in dealing with possible flaws and shortcomings.... How the government handles the Madura case will become a yardstick of Indonesia's credibility in canvassing its people's will and aspirations."

'Political maneuvering counterproductive'

Leading, independent Kompas declared (6/3): "Manipulation is common in politics. However, there are still limits. When people feel that limits have been passed and they have the opportunity to express their feelings, political maneuvering often proves to be counterproductive. As times change, political parties should be allowed to choose their own leaders. It is important to let people have more responsibility in order to develop their political education."

'We take note of Golkar's promises for change'

Under the above headline, independent, afternoon Suara Pembaruan asserted (6/2): "Among the fundamental issues spotlighted during the campaign was the need for political and economic reform in order to create a clean and trustworthy administration and to uphold justice and human rights. We hope that Golkar will take steps to create a more democratic system.... Golkar should be more engaged in improving parliament's effectiveness, rather than merely serving the executive branch."

'Globalization boosts democracy'

The leading, independent Jakarta Post ran this op-ed piece by Aleksius Jemadu (6/3): "There is an increasingly persuasive argument that the key to a democratic future for Indonesia is the empowerment of its civil society.... Our long emphasis on state-led political stability, while necessary for sustaining economic growth, has resulted in the depoliticization of the people.... With better education and more access to development information, the Indonesian people today are fully aware of their basic political and economic rights. Therefore, the dominant power should respect them as legitimate carriers of the demand for political and economic justice."

'Tragedy of PDI'

In the opinion of Muslim intellectual Republika (6/3): "The PDI's decline will considerably affect the work of the parliament...by making it even more difficult for smaller factions to balance domination by the Golkar-ABRI (Indonesian Armed Forces) 'duo,' which has close ties with the executive branch. The shrinking of the PDI will also impede the public from voicing their aspirations...running counter to their growing desire for pluralism."

'Explaining Golkar's victory and its responsibilities'

Leading, independent Kompas judged (6/2): "The results of the general election are as important as...the hopes and expectations for improvement that were promised during the campaigns. Golkar should capture the voters' message with an open mind and sincerity.... Justice should be the foundation with which to expose inconsistencies...solve social crises...and build a clean, honest government in order to bring reform-oriented people back to being the conscience of a united nation."

'Triumph of national development reforms'

In the view of pro-government, Islamic-oriented Pelita (6/2): "The people have again decided to choose Golkar, making it the single majority in our political system. They believe Golkar will be able bring about reform with the objectives of prosperity, justice, and welfare for all."

'Crisis of legitimacy'

Under the above headline, independent Media Indonesia asserted (5/31): "At a certain moment, the masses find the power to determine their own leader. They are not thwarted by the status quo or by leaders who are willing to oppose mainstream desires. History has shown that successful leaders who emerge suddenly gain spontaneous support from the people. It is the people who determine their leader, not the other way around."

'Tallying the votes'

The leading, independent Jakarta Post cautioned (5/31): "Amid the relief that voting has proceeded smoothly, it must be noted that, even with the counting still in progress, allegations of widespread fraud and vote-rigging have already been coming in from Golkar's main contender in the general election, the United Development Party (PPP). Similar allegations have also come from the Independent Election Monitoring Committee (KIPP). The PPP executive board is reportedly expected to meet soon to decide whether or not the party will accept the official results. While it may be easy to shrug off such complaints as being almost an established part of general elections in many countries, especially in the developing world, it is important to examine these allegations if we are serious in our intention to gradually establish a healthy working democracy in which justice and prosperity can prevail together, as envisaged by our founding fathers."

'Process of national disintegration'

The government-oriented Indonesian Observer, in an op-ed piece by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Roeslan Abdulgani said (5/30): "What is conspicuous in [the people's] eyes is the social discrepancy, the violence and arbitrariness, and the arrogance of the bureaucracy, from the top right down to the bottom, together with the conspicuous corruption, collusion, perversion of authority, commercialism and nepotism.... In the campaign period leading to the general election, there was a polarization and a visible separation into two distinct forces. First, a force eager to maintain the status quo...and a force that is eager for change...not destructive change, but a corrective-constructive change aimed at improvement.... Although it can be said that yellow will once again prevail at the election, its credibility will decline since its democratic value is handicapped, as well as its morality. It is feared that the polarization of the two forces will continue after the elections are over. And this will increase the process of national disintegration. The unity and integrity of the nation, country and state are threatened."

'Gaps in feelings'

Leading independent Kompas editorialized (5/30): "Many people raised the issue of gaps during the campaign season. We should learn that the issue is not restricted to social and economic gaps, but also pertains to feelings between the people and the government."

'Voting responsibly'

Ruling Golkar Party's Suara Karya declared (5/29): "The reason everyone should manage their voting rights responsibly is that when people make the wrong choice, they impede national development.... Citizens who feel responsible for making the election a success are concerned about the future, that is to say, making the effort to retain New Order leadership."

'Soeharto in overdrive'

The liberal Sydney Morning Herald opined (6/3): "President Soeharto has his mandate, such as it is. But by refusing to allow this election to be run more fairly and to allow democracy to grow even by the smallest degree, he has added to his difficulties.... Far from consolidating Indonesia's stability, it marks the beginning of a period of new tension.... It is regrettable that the Indonesian government, by manipulating these elections, has let slip the opportunity to move towards a system which allows the will of the Indonesian people to be heard more clearly."

'Indonesia's future'

In the words of the liberal Melbourne Age (6/2): "After so many years of President Soeharto's rule, there is growing impatience with the pace of change and the extent of corruption among elites. The mantra of gradualism is losing its ability to convince the politically marginalized and the economically deprived."

'Indonesia falls short in new age'

The national, conservative Australian judged (6/2): "Even by its own standards, the Indonesian political system is no longer working. The election campaign has been one of the most violent, and least democratic, for decades. Even the basic objective of stability is thus not being achieved. If the political paralysis goes on indefinitely, the other basic policy aim–economic growth–is likely to come under threat.... Indonesia deserves something better."

'Path to a post-Soeharto Indonesia'

Top-circulation, moderate Yomiuri maintained (6/1): "Indonesia's ruling Golkar Party scored a general election landslide victory Thursday, garnering more than 70 percent of the votes–the party's target level for proportional representation.... President Soeharto was apparently determined to win a landslide victory for his party.... "In response to growing criticism from inside and outside the country of Soeharto's long rule, the president wanted to show that he enjoys overwhelming support from voters after more than 30 years in power. Such strong support from voters is particularly important if Soeharto intends to run for a seventh term in next year's presidential election. But things will not necessarily be...easy. The biggest task ahead for Soeharto, who turns 76 this month, is to ensure that he pave the way for a transfer of power and that such a transfer goes smoothly.

"Neighboring countries are also concerned about Indonesia's transition of political power. If Indonesia, with a population of 200 million, were to fall into a chaos, the stability of the region would be threatened. Furthermore, the security of sea lanes...might be endangered.... It is important to facilitate moves leading to political freedom and eliminate the sense of alienation among many of the Indonesian people."

'A downfall merely postponed'

Ricardo Malay wrote in the independent Manila Chronicle (5/30): "There is a measure of deja vu in the way the Indonesian political scene is shaping up.... The comparison with Marcos returns in the light of US disengagement of support for the Indonesian strongman.... Why have the Indonesians tolerated a tyrant that is as greedy as Mobutu and Marcos at the expense of their national pride and dignity? The question may be unfair. Like their Filipino brothers, the Indonesians are slow to anger–preferring to suffer in silence. But when they awaken to injustice, they are like a rampaging water buffalo that gores its adversary to a gruesome death. The stirrings now being felt in Indonesia spell the handwriting on the wall for the dictatorship, its fall may not be imminent but it will come, slowly but surely."

'Soeharto's daughter for vice president?'

Pro-business Joong-Ang Ilbo put forth this analysis (6/2): "With the general elections completed, the key issue for the Indonesians is who will become vice president in next year's election. While President Soeharto's re-election looks obvious at this point, his old age has kept the issue alive. The president himself has not mentioned a name, but most Indonesians expect his eldest daughter to run for the post.... The people do not seem to welcome this prospect. Indonesia won't be able to avoid criticism that it is becoming something of a dynasty if Soeharto's daughter succeeds him."

'Abstention will diminish administration's victory'

Conservative Segye Ilbo (5/30) commented: "Indonesia's ruling Golkar Party will win the election in a landslide. The key issue now is how many will turn out to vote. Since it has had close to 90 percent support in most elections, the party needs to match that popularity this year so it can win the presidential election in 1998. In order to ensure victory, Golkar has already removed a possible danger by preventing popular opposition leaders from running in the election. Those who support opposition leaders are vowing not to vote. Although abstaining may not change the election results, it will diminish the Soeharto administration's victory."

'Monitoring today's Indonesia - violence and frustration'

Cafe Dam commented in elite, business-oriented Krungthep Turakij (5/29): "The raging campaign violence that has spread, particularly in eastern Java, the traditional power base of President Soeharto, is an unprecedented challenge against the powers-that-be so far... Those who previously had been cowed and did not dare speak out...including business circles...the press... and the middle class have now started to vent their anger openly against the Soeharto regime.... Globalization in information technology may have played a major role in germinating and disseminating political spontaneity, despite restrictions on access to information still in place.... With the availability of media as CNN, the Indonesian middle class have come to the realization that they do possess adequate intelligence to become a formidable force to effect changes."

'A revolution is nigh'

Trairat Soontornprapat put forth this view in the mass-circulation Daily News (5/29): "The violence in Indonesia is believed to portend the imminent end to President Soeharto's 30 years of dictatorial rule.... Nepotism...and a government with high concentration of military personnel and hand-picked representatives...is a ready ticket to an eventual rebellion, coup d'etat or revolution."

'Mr. Soeharto's victory'

The centrist Hindu asked its readers (6/2): "Who can doubt that the Indonesian strongman, General Soeharto, and his Golkar Party will win handsomely...in what must be regarded as a nearly perfectly engineered election?... The fifth 'general' election, whatever the verdict, could prove to be a watershed in [Indonesia's] political march.... For the first time, the suppressed society found its voice and let it be heard. Things may never be the same again....

"It was a feeling of disenchantment and discontent that gave vent to campaign violence.... The opposition converted the poll campaign into a show of popular unrest.... It was Indonesia's founder-leader Sukarno who in fact pioneered this distortion with his version of guided democracy that permitted but a single party–his own. Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand in the neighborhood have all yielded their own variations.... If the aging Soeharto is not to see all the gains he has achieved for his country unravel in eruptions of civil unrest, he must introduce political reforms and let some fresh air in. He owes this to his country."

'Soeharto again'

An editorial in the nationalist Hindustan Times declared (6/2): "It would surprise very few if, when official results are eventually announced, it turns out that Golkar has achieved its biggest electoral triumph in 26 years.... It would be interesting to watch how Soeharto anoints his successor, and how the new leader will cope with the legacy of 30 years of his rule.... Although Soeharto had enthusiastically dubbed this year's election as a 'festival of democracy,' the campaign turned out to be anything but a democratic celebration, since several hundred died in pre-poll violence.... The Muslim-oriented United Development Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) fought an unequal battle with Golkar.... It does not exactly strain credulity to conclude that the armed forces had deliberately allowed poll violence to spread in order to underline their indispensability. A disturbing thought, but not implausible, given the present political situation in the archipelago."

'Indonesia's sham democracy'

The leading Globe and Mail contended (5/30): "Indonesia's ruling Golkar Party is heading for a smashing victory in this week's parliamentary elections... This is Indonesian politics–predictable, ritualized, ceremonial. But stable? That is another question... Even if, by some miracle, the opposition were to seize control of the parliament, it would not make much difference because almost all power is concentrated in the presidency and the cabinet. Democracy in Indonesia is a sham. Does it matter? Soeharto, after all, has been a highly successful leader in many ways.... That success would not have been possible without political stability. But is authoritarianism the right way to ensure stability in the future?... If Indonesia is going to maintain its cherished stability, it needs to give people a way to vent their feelings by legitimate means: through independent political groups, a free press and a fair electoral system."

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