Two years after the country was put on notice by the international Permanent People's Tribunal (PPT) for its abuses of the environment and indigenous communities of West Papua, and one year after being inundated by mass protests, Prabowo's regime has proceeded to double down on forcing through his agenda.

With the currency continuing its freefall to new record lows, blatant corruption at Prabowo's flagship projects, and an increasing tide of violence in West Papua, alongside national and international advocacy against it, there is a distinct feeling among civil society and some external analysts that the situation is similar to the condition of Indonesia heading up to 1997-98, where the economic crisis for the country couldn't be dealt with properly by the central government leading to regime change. With Suharto's former son-in-law replicating elements of the New Order regime, and contributing to the conditions of a burgeoning economic crisis, it could likewise mean Prabowo meets the same end.

Making a meal of the economy through corruption

The economic crisis continues with the Indonesian Rupiah continuing to depreciate against the US Dollar and breaking new record lows (1 USD: IDR 18,200) on 29th May. This represents a worrying trend towards rising costs for international goods due to the weakening currency. Despite this continuing negative trend in Indonesia's economy, Prabowo has continued his flagship costly Free and Nutritious Meals (Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG)) programme aimed at students and the government roll-out of state-led cooperatives at the village level (Koperasi Desa/Kelurahan Merah Putih (KDKMP)). Prabowo continues to believe these projects are the basis of economic development. They have been plagued with spiralling costs and criticism, not only from civil society, but also by global economic institutions and businessmen, particularly the ethnic-Chinese business community, citing the weakening currency, lack of trust in government finances due to the large expense of MBG and KDKMP and the response needed to the fuel crisis and lack of trust in Danatara's ability to brokerage over key commodities.

The MBG program has also experienced problems and corruption. Hundreds of students in Jayapura got food poisoning on the 4th and 5th August, the latest in the crisis-ridden programme which has seen at least 33,626 students poisoned from January 2025 until April 2026, according to the Indonesian Education Monitoring Network (Jaringan Pemantau Pendidikan Indonesia). Furthermore, two former security force personnel, head and two deputy heads of the National Nutrition Agency (Badan Gizi Nasional, BGN) were named as suspects in corruption cases. The BGN runs the ambitious MBG scheme, and the two three individuals were named suspects alongside three other administrators of the programme. The head was accused of corrupt practices behind the halal certification process of the MBG meals. In a further display of administrative chaos, the deputy who replaced the first chairperson, then quickly resigned herself.

Corruption cases have been coming thick, which has also been complicated by factional disputes that are arising between the police and prosecutors. In response to the criminalisation of the former police general, the National Police Force named the Deputy Attorney General for Special Crimes, Febrie Adriansyah, as a suspect in a money laundering case, after seizing hundreds of gold bars weighing a total of 74 kilograms and cash from his house. It seems that this feud has triggered a long running conflict between police and prosecutors, each of which enjoys backing from competing political actors. It was reported that police support has come from Dasco (Prabowo's right-hand man for political affairs in Gerindra), whilst Sjafrie Syamsuddin (Minister of Defence), backed prosecutors. This would make the war between the two law enforcement agencies also an extension of political rivalry between the two powerful Prabowo aides, Dasco and Syamsuddin which has been brewing since the mass protests last year, which we covered in the September-December 2025 Quarterly Update.

The tightening economic situation has even led to knock-on impacts on civil servants as well. The Minister of Home Affairs says some 39 local government administrations failed to pay salaries to their fixed-term contract civil servants, due to the proportion already paid to employees 'breaching safe fiscal limits' caused by austerity policies. This led to protests by civil servants, including one in Ternate, North Maluku Province, where the Governor had said that fiscal relaxation, or a loosening of austerity policies, alone would not rectify the pay issue, as they did not have "enough cash flow".

Meanwhile, the foreign debt taken on by the Indonesian government continues to balloon, as it reaches $439.8 billion in April. The Ministry of Finance travelled to China to try and work on reducing this and to attract Indonesian corporate investment in Chinese government bonds, called Panda bonds. The visit didn't go well, with the Finance Minister having to counter claims of being forced to visit Beijing due to the weakening state of the Indonesian economy. This is in addition to the replacement of Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo on 27th June, who had been at the helm of Indonesia's central bank for eight years, and deputy governor for five years before that. Amidst rumours of being forced out by palace intrigue, a government spokesman wanted to make it clear that the resignation was for personal reasons. Nevertheless, it represents another tremor which has hit confidence in the stability of the Indonesian economy and financial system.

The lawmakers amended the Finance Law in June, but legal experts say that the new law weakens financial oversight and public accountability mechanisms, leaving it more vulnerable to abuse. Lawmakers within a very short period have amended the finance law, but the weakening of accountability undermines Indonesia's financial credibility on the world stage. The amendments allow investors to put money into debt issuances by Danantara, which itself has been given a BBB credit rating by S&P Global, citing an ability to pay back obligations, but highlighting the poor economic situation for investors currently.

Military targets LGBTIQ+ communities as a 'national security threat' whilst buying long range missiles

Since the 2025 Governmental Regulation about the National Defence Strategy stated that LGBTIQ+ were a non-military national threat, there has been an increase in harassment and attacks against LGBTIQ+ communities. This puts the LGBTIQ+ community in the same company in the eyes of the defence strategy as those promoting separatism, terrorism, riots, theft of natural resources and those who distribute and use drugs. However, it came to more recent attention during Pride Month in July and because of the hate campaign against the LGBTIQ+ community after prominent Muslim politicians accused Prabowo of being gay. 2025 saw a 135 per cent increase in violent incidents against the community, according to LGBTIQ+ activist group, Arus Pelangi. Meanwhile, the Vice Minister of Religion called on education practitioners to create material that will 'eliminate the spread of LGBTIQ+ behaviour'. The brunt of fear has been felt mostly by the transgender community, due to their increased visibility.

Meanwhile, in more traditional military matters, Indonesia imported long range missiles from India in July. The BrahMos missile systems were built as a joint venture between India and Russia, including many Russian components, which could make Indonesia a target of sanctions from the USA and European countries. At least by the US, Indonesia may be exempted from sanctions, in order to keep Indonesia on side in the US's broader strategy of containing China. Indonesia has been pursuing a procurement strategy for its strategic defence system that mixes competing global powers. For example, their radar system is Western in origin, but Indonesia have purchased planes from Russia. The move to buy the missiles likely chimes with Prabowo's wider strategy of wanting to be seen as adhering to a traditional non-aligned position in international affairs, making this purchase more political than defence-based in nature.

Unlike many other ministries, the Ministry of Defence is enjoying a much increased state budget, increasing by at least double from 2025, with the Minister even pushing for a maximum quadruple budget increase, all for 'operational reasons'. This starkly shows that the Ministry of Defence seems to be exempt from austerity affecting other government ministries, and that money that is hard to find for other ministries is always available for Prabowo's pet projects and militarisation.

Pacific and Church pressure for West Papua

At the 62nd Regular Session of the UN Human Rights Council (HRC), Vanuatu, on behalf of other Pacific countries, challenged Indonesia to fulfil their pledge to invite a UN observation mission to West Papua, as promised by then President Jokowi to the then UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in 2018. There is a desire to pressure Indonesia as it currently serves as the President of the HRC, so offering a good opportunity to challenge Indonesia to do better for human rights. In addition, the Secretariat of the Melanesian Spearhead Group attended the Expert Mechanism on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (EMRIP), echoing the same call. However, Indonesia issued a reply statement that rejected the demand for the mission. Nevertheless, the publicity surrounding this and their presidency of the Council has attracted further international attention on West Papua. The World Council of Churches has planned a second mission to Papua, by August 2027, to keep attention on the region.

Meanwhile, in mid-July, a coalition of different Christian churches, including the Protestant Communion of Churches (Persekutuan Gereja-Gereja Indonesia (PGI)), the Catholic Bishop's Conference of Indonesia (Konferensi Waligereja Indonesia (KWI)), the Orthodox Church, among others, issued a joint statement through the Forum of Indonesian Christian Community (Forum Umat Kristiani Indonesia (FUKRI)) criticising the government's response to the armed conflict and humanitarian crisis in West Papua. In the joint statement, the churches also called for de-militarisation of the region, urged the government to give priority to helping Internally Displaced People (IDPs) who have fled the increasing conflict in the region, to prioritise dialogue and to give a greater role to Papuan churches in working to manage the crisis. It displays some new energy and boldness on the part of some of Papua's religious leaders to speak truth to power and call out the major continuing problems that continue to affect thousands of their community members across the region.

The KWI themselves issued a pastoral note on Indonesia's Independence Day on 17th August, which, on top of the issues highlighted in the joint statement, emphasised the humanitarian tragedy in West Papua, also pointing out issues caused by National Strategic Projects (Proyek Strategis Nasional (PSN)), the marginalisation of indigenous communities and the environmental catastrophe caused by widespread deforestation. The Conference has had a history of being moderate on West Papua issues, but have decided to up the pressure on the government after two new indigenous Papuan bishops raised their concerns internally.

Other big stories

• In early July, a local Papuan armed group shot dead an American pilot and burned the plane belonging to an airline partially owned by the Catholic Church (Associated Mission Aviation (AMA)). The armed group spokesperson publicly claimed that the company had brought military personnel in the past, a claim that the Catholic Church has denied, though our source has said that they are covering for a case of mistaken identity. More can be read about the incident in TAPOL's statement. The killing of the pilot adds to a death toll begun in Boven Digoel in February with the killing of two commercial plane pilots, carried out by the same armed group. Papuan activists have stated that the armed group did not respect Papuan religious institutions.

• The national parliament led by Gerindra (Prabowo's) Party suddenly re-tabled a draft law on indigenous peoples which has been stuck in the legislative process for more than 10 years. Prabowo has already contacted leaders of indigenous peoples' CSOs to discuss the draft law, but they have been cautious, as they do not trust Prabowo's intentions in this matter. It seems like Prabowo is trying to mirror Jokowi's strategy of being a populist leader, by trying to offer concessions to make his policies – those related to PSN and military action that harm indigenous communities – more palatable.

• The second anniversary of the historic session and verdict of the Permanent People's Tribunal on West Papua has prompted a renewed retrospective of the decision and the continuing abuses noted there that still plague the region today. TAPOL had a role coordinating the witnesses for the event, and produced a pre-Tribunal summary setting the scene before the hearings. A total of 29 witnesses gave testimony of the abuses of indigenous rights and environmental destruction across West Papua. The Tribunal found that:

1. Indigenous communities had indeed faced displacement, which infringed on their basic rights;
2. Consultation procedures were manipulated by the Indonesian government;
3. Human rights violations by the State have created a "shadow of fear";
4. Effects on land, water and forest have been severe, with particular damage caused by natural gas projects, and deforestation caused by land grabs for food estates and palm oil plantations;
5. These projects, enabled by corporate-State collaboration, is obliterating local indigenous communities, amounting to a 'slow genocide';
6. This collaboration allows for campaigns of terror, militarisation and legal impunity from abuses, a dominant pattern across the region;
7. The Indonesian army has been instrumental in carrying out and defending this State-corporate collaboration on the ground, including creating conflict to displace people from their land and persecuting those who oppose or call out abuses;
8. Freeport McMoRan, British Petroleum and its partners, and eleven palm oil corporations are directly implicated in these abuses, and Western governments are implicated in the training of Indonesia's security forces.

Arguably today, with the expansion of Prabowo's PSN and their devastating impact on indigenous communities and vast tracts of rainforest in West Papua, on wider spatial scales than ever before, the verdict is as important as ever. This is particularly noted with Prabowo's increasing militarisation of West Papua in particular, and displays of crony capitalism whereby senior military personnel themselves are awarded lucrative deals to protect and run these projects for their own benefits. Yet in the aftermath of the PPT, there have been much more vocal calls against Indonesian government policy in the region by civil society, religious groups and the international community, and so there has been a tangible increase in awareness and advocacy to try and right the issues that were brought into stark relief by the Tribunal and its verdict.

Source: https://tapol.org/news/tapols-3rd-quarterly-update-202