Divya Kariza, Jakarta – President Prabowo Subianto has declared that Indonesia's aggressive push for food and energy self-reliance is not rooted in ideology but in "common sense", as it is required to survive a volatile global landscape.
In a candid question-and-answer session with senior journalists and experts at his Hambalang residence, aired on Thursday, the President framed national resilience as a biological imperative.
"I think the school of thought is the school of common sense; common sense and reality," Prabowo stated, noting that basic human needs, particularly food, were the foundation of civilization.
Referring to historic and psychological theories, Prabowo noted that conflict always stemmed from struggles over resources.
"Without food, there is no civilization," he said, warning that the era of relying on globalization to fill domestic gaps was dangerously naive.
He cited the Russia-Ukraine war as an example of how distant conflicts can disrupt local stability, where war between two major wheat producers triggered a global spike in food prices.
"Now, the world is getting smaller, everything is interconnected. Conflict in one place impacts the entire world," he said, stressing that import dependency was a liability in a world riddled with war.
When asked whether his policies were aimed at preparing Indonesia for direct conflict, Prabowo said noted that warfare was a constant in human history, reinforcing the need for Indonesia to stand on its own feet.
Addressing fiscal concerns, the President dismissed criticism over the diversion of funds from the free nutritious meal program.
He insisted that the "efficiency measures", aimed at keeping the fiscal deficit below 3 percent, did not compromise critical sectors.
"We're not reducing education costs, we're not reducing operational costs," he said, asserting that detractors were "dramatizing" routine budget adjustments.
As geopolitical tensions continue to rattle global supply chains, Prabowo's message was clear: for Indonesia, self-reliance is no longer just an economic strategy; it is the logical response to a world at war.
During the interview, presidential spokesman Prasetyo Hadi said the government was looking for up to 80 trillion rupiah ($4.7 billion) in spending cuts to free up funds as a buffer against the fallout of the United States-Israel war on Iran, though he did not reveal where cuts may happen.
Southeast Asia's largest economy is also mulling fuel-saving measures, including work-from-home arrangements for public sector workers, as US-Israeli strikes on Iran in the Gulf have sent global oil prices soaring.
The government has repeatedly insisted that Prabowo's signature free meals program, budgeted at $19.7 billion for 2026, will remain untouched.
It has also so far staunchly defended fuel subsidies, which consume around 15 percent of the overall state budget.
Mohammad Faisal, the executive director of the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE), who was present in the interview with the President, suggested that the government reduce spending on programs that were either underperforming or of lower priority, which would include refocusing priorities such as the free meals program.
In an interview with The Jakarta Post on Sunday, he urged a recalibration of key programs to maximize their economic impact.
Faisal distinguished between infrastructure spending, which delivered long-term benefits, and the MBG program, which he said offered immediate, short-term gains.
The free meals program, he argued, could go beyond consumption. "It can also be about linking with production, which can have a multiplier effect," he said in an interview.
To achieve that, Faisal stressed the need to maximize the involvement of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and local supply chains.
"It's not uniform across Indonesia," he said, noting that the current approach tended to be centralistic.
Josua Pardede, chief economist at Bank Permata, warned of potential inefficiencies in the free meals program.
"[It] can only be considered efficient if every rupiah spent truly changes nutritional quality, children's health, school attendance, learning ability and future productivity, while attracting demand from farmers, livestock breeders, fishermen and local food businesses," Josua told the Post on Sunday.
He noted that the program's opportunity costs had to be weighed against foregone alternatives, such as irrigation, cold chain infrastructure, targeted fertilizer subsidies, school improvements and basic health services.
"If the free meals program only increases short-term consumption, it erodes more productive spending space," he said. "However, if procurement is truly based on domestic supply and strengthens human resources, then free meals shifts from consumption spending to investment in people and leveraging the local economy."
On energy security, Josua warned that cheap energy should not be the ultimate goal.
He said export restrictions for coal, gas or electricity, so as to ensure sufficient supply for domestic downstream industries, only made sense if the resulting added value, employment and tax revenues outweigh sacrificed export revenues.
"If smelters or derivative industries survive only because energy is provided too cheaply and for too long, the state is, in fact, providing hidden subsidies," he said, adding that energy support had to be tied to efficiency targets and firm time frames.
With escalating tensions in the Middle East and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sending oil prices soaring this month, Josua stressed the need to maintain secure energy supplies for households and strategic industries while ensuring disciplined pricing.
Josua said the goal of food self-sufficiency has to be balanced with the need for selective openness to technology, financing and export markets.
"The most sensible compromise is to build food sovereignty for basic needs while selectively utilizing foreign openness for capital, technology and market expansion," he said.
Regarding the government's target of 8 percent GDP growth by 2029, he noted that estimates for this year ranged from 4.9 to 5.7 percent and that achieving the planned acceleration would require deep bureaucratic reform and an improved investment climate.
Rizal Taufikurahman, head of the center for macroeconomics and finance at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), urged the government to assess the Rp 335 trillion MBG program based on its economic value.
He emphasized calculating the cost per beneficiary and comparing returns to alternative projects, like infrastructure, irrigation and productive subsidies, as spending on consumer programs comes at the expense of the long-term growth those funds could otherwise generate.
"The key question is whether the social rate of return on the free meals program exceeds that of more productive spending," he told the Post on Monday.