Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta – Business lobby Apindo recently said that Indonesian small enterprises could be safe from the trade-related repercussions of the Iran war, as their export rate remains low.
The world is bracing for the economic impact of US-Israel airstrikes on Iran. The heightened conflict, now in its sixth day, has ignited fears of energy price hikes. Before the fighting erupted, Indonesia had been trying to get its micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) – which account for over 60% of its gross domestic product – into the global market. As of 2024, MSMEs made up 15.7% of Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports, government data showed. But the low overseas shipment rate turns out to be a blessing in disguise.
"The [Iran conflict] has not had a direct impact on MSMEs, as only a few of them have made it to the export market. Maybe the war will make it more difficult for them to secure raw materials, but the Middle East is not our only source," Apindo chairwoman Shinta Kamdani told reporters in Jakarta on Wednesday evening.
According to Shinta, Middle East tensions typically affect energy prices. However, around 70% of Indonesia's liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports – a mainstay energy for the culinary businesses – come from the US.
"So I doubt small businesses are facing direct shocks as a result of the war. Even so, MSMEs are part of a larger supply chain. If the war persists, it will have links to all sorts of businesses," Shinta said.
The Jakarta Globe asked Shinta whether the war could further shrink Indonesia's positive trade balance. Indonesia's surplus had dropped from $2.51 billion in December 2025 to just $950 million in January. Shinta remarked that businesses remained upbeat that domestic events, including the Chinese New Year and Ramadan, can pump up orders in the first quarter.
"The [war-induced] issue lies more on exports. As well as disruptions related to logistics routes and energy costs."
The war has now morphed into a regionwide conflict following Iranian retaliatory strikes on US allies in the Gulf. Earlier this week, senior minister Airlangga Hartarto had told the press that the government would monitor the situation.
"But the impact on exports depend on how long the war lasts," Airlangga said.
Indonesia reported its non-oil and gas exports had soared 4.38% year-on-year to $21.26 billion in January 2026.