"The parliamentary threshold is generally determined based on political decisions, not mechanical calculations," Arya said on Thursday, February 26, 2026.
Risks of setting the threshold too low or too high
Arya explained that setting the threshold too low, for example at 1 percent in the 2029 election, could lead to an extreme multiparty system. This, he warned, risks legislative deadlock and political instability in the DPR, Indonesia's House of Representatives.
On the other hand, raising the threshold above the current level could significantly increase the number of votes that do not translate into seats, reducing representation.
To balance stability and inclusiveness, Arya proposed gradually lowering the threshold over two election cycles: 3.5 percent for 2029 and 3 percent in the following election.
He noted that in the previous election, applying a 3.5 percent threshold would have reduced wasted votes from 17 million to 11 million.
"The reduction is expected to increase inclusiveness in political representation," Arya said.
Parliamentary threshold over the years
Indonesia's parliamentary threshold has evolved over successive elections:
2004 election
Threshold: 0 percent
Parties in DPR: 15
Participating parties: 24
Valid votes: 113,490,795
Wasted votes: 7,567,285
2009 election
Threshold: 2.5 percent
Parties in DPR: 9
Participating parties: 38
Valid votes: 104,048,118
Wasted votes: 19,047,481
2014 election
Threshold: 3.5 percent
Parties in DPR: 10
Participating parties: 12
Valid votes: 124,885,737
Wasted votes: 2,964,975
2019 election
Threshold: 4 percent
Parties in DPR: 9
Participating parties: 16
Valid votes: 129,972,260
Wasted votes: 13,595,842
2024 election
Threshold: 4 percent
Parties in DPR: 8
Participating parties: 18
Valid votes: 151,796,631
Wasted votes: 17,304,303
Constitutional Court ruling
In Decision No. 116/PUU-XVIII/2023, the Constitutional Court of Indonesia ruled that the 4 percent parliamentary threshold stipulated in the Election Law must be abolished.
In its legal reasoning, the Court said the provision was inconsistent with the principles of popular sovereignty and electoral justice, and undermined legal certainty guaranteed by the constitution.
However, the Court stated that Article 414 paragraph (1) of the Election Law remains conditionally constitutional for the 2029 election and beyond, as long as revisions are made to align it with constitutional principles.
The ruling leaves lawmakers with the task of determining a new threshold that balances political stability with fair representation ahead of the next election cycle.
Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2089452/how-indonesias-parliamentary-threshold-has-changed-over-tim