Jakarta – The disaster in Sumatra toward the end of last year exposed the weaknesses of President Prabowo Subianto's administration. The government appeared to fumble its response to the floods that claimed thousands of lives across several regions. When this sluggishness drew criticism, several officials responded with mere apologies and excuses.

As the new year begins, the public is confronted with a stark reality. We have a leader who incessantly claims his administration is working hard, yet he remains trapped in the illusion that the country is faring well when the opposite is true. Surrounded by sycophants, he seems to live in an echo chamber of his own making – one that is far from reality.

For 2026, the administration has targeted an economic growth of 5.4 percent. Few are optimistic that this can be achieved. This is reflected in a survey by the international research firm Ipsos Group, published on December 16, 2025, which revealed that more than half of Indonesian respondents believe a recession could hit this year. These respondents appear keenly aware of the uncertainty looming over the economy for the next 12 months.

Perhaps Prabowo has never received this information from his staff: budget cuts will have a widespread impact, exports of major commodities remain sluggish, and domestic consumption is in decline. The economic slowdown will trigger a wave of mass layoffs.

People's purchasing power will also weaken. And there is a risk of widening fiscal deficit as budget-draining projects, such as the free nutritious meal program, are being pushed forward despite declining state revenues. Sooner or later, there will be an economic downturn that could end in recession.

Furthermore, the Prabowo regime is gambling with the last remaining fruits of the 1998 Reformasi. He and the elites of his supporting political parties intend to abolish the direct election of regional heads. This is no mere rumor, the plan is set to be pushed through via a revision of the General Elections Law, which will begin deliberations in the House of Representatives (DPR) at the start of the 2026 session.

Along with these maneuvers, Prabowo is also trying to realize another old ambition: a return to the original 1945 Constitution, before the amendments. The entry point for this is the State Policy Guidelines (Pokok-Pokok Haluan Negara) – a development blueprint similar to the New Order's Garis-Garis Besar Haluan Negara (GBHN) – which requires a constitutional legal framework. If the Constitution is rolled back to its original 1945 manuscript, darkness will shroud the republic once more, mirroring the New Order era.

Could all of this happen within the coming year? In the Prabowo era, anything is possible. Suharto, who ruled the New Order with an iron fist and was toppled by the Reformasi movement, has now been designated a national hero. The same applies to the rewriting of national history and the handing out of honorary titles and special ranks to his colleagues and supporters.

These are the traps of power that could bring Prabowo down. Isolated within his own echo chamber, Prabowo may be unaware that his leadership style has become a subject of intense scrutiny. People are also whispering about his inner circle. Dissatisfaction with the President's closest advisors is reaching a breaking point.

Party leaders continue to support him for three reasons: they are held hostage by their own legal cases, they fear their parties will be fractured, or they simply wish to cling to their positions. Their loyalty is, in truth, purely transactional. When faced with particular situations, for example, if Prabowo's people overstep, they could turn against him. And this tells us that Prabowo's leadership is not actually strong.

The year 2026 will be a crucial one for the Prabowo administration. If market confidence collapses and the economy worsens, his entire political agenda could be thrown into chaos. Conversely, if the economy stays on track, we might lose our democracy. Prabowo's inability to navigate this delicate situation could lead to a third, more dire possibility: a free-falling economy alongside a crumbling democracy.

Should that happen, those of a more optimistic bent might argue that democracy still exists, albeit in a diminished state due to the loss of checks and balances. Of course, this would be a "hollow democracy" that offers no real meaning. Meanwhile, the decline across all sectors, including the economy, is staring us in the face.

– Read the Complete Story in Tempo English Magazine

Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2078256/facing-a-year-of-challenge