Arnoldus Kristianus, Jakarta – The government is finalizing a Ramadan-Eid al Fitr 2026 stimulus package aimed at supporting both demand and supply to lift economic growth in the first quarter of 2026.
Chief of Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto said the package would focus on seasonal measures to keep household consumption resilient during the early months of the year, when spending typically drives domestic growth.
"Several programs have been prepared, including transportation discounts for flights, trains, sea transport, land transport, and toll roads," Airlangga told reporters on Thursday.
He said supply-side support would come mainly through transport fare discounts, while demand would be strengthened through social assistance, including rice and cooking oil. "For social assistance, both rice and oil are also being prepared," he said.
The overall size of the stimulus has yet to be finalized, as discussions are still ongoing across ministries and agencies. However, Airlangga said the package would be larger than previous programs, with an indicative budget of around Rp 13 trillion ($774.49 million). "The amount will be bigger and the value higher. Other program details will be announced later," he said.
Separately, Coordinating Economic Affairs Ministry Secretary Susiwijono Moegiarso said the stimulus was designed to align demand- and supply-side measures ahead of the Lebaran holiday.
"The pattern is transportation fare and ticket discounts as supply-side incentives, while demand is strengthened through measures to boost purchasing power. Demand is reinforced and prices on the supply side are reduced so they meet at a balance point," Susiwijono said in Jakarta.
The government plans to roll out discounts for train, ship, and airline tickets, citing the sector's sizable contribution to the economy. Data from the Central Statistics Agency show transportation and warehousing grew 8.62% and contributed 6.10% to economic growth in the third quarter of 2025.
"We want to propose that airline fare discounts, previously around 13-16%, can be made even larger with more alternatives," Susiwijono said.
The discounts are expected to be announced soon, as Idulfitri will fall on March 20, 2026, and transport tickets are typically available up to 45 days before departure. "We want the psychological boost to be very strong in the first quarter of 2026, as Ramadan and Lebaran both fall in the first quarter," he said.
Economist Yusuf Rendy Manilet of the Center of Reform on Economics said the combination of transport discounts and social assistance could provide a meaningful boost to first-quarter growth, as household consumption remains the main growth engine.
"The bigger the assistance value and the broader the coverage, the stronger the potential spillover into subsequent economic activity," Yusuf said on Thursday.
However, he cautioned that such stimulus measures are typically short-term and need to be complemented by structural reforms to strengthen long-term economic foundations. He also noted that price stability during Ramadan and Lebaran would be critical to the program's effectiveness.
"If staple prices such as rice and cooking oil are well controlled, social assistance can create additional spending space for travel and non-essential consumption. If price pressures are high, the benefits could be absorbed by basic needs alone," he said.
Meanwhile, LPEM FEB UI macroeconomist Teuku Riefky said the repeated use of stimulus programs highlighted unresolved structural issues in household purchasing power.
"There will be a positive impact, but it will be relatively limited, because this does not address the structural problem, namely weak purchasing power due to the lack of quality job creation," he said.