Dian Rahma Fika, Jakarta – Lecturer of the Master of Disaster Science program at Syiah Kuala University in Aceh, Teuku Alvisyahrin, has warned that the recent disasters affecting three provinces in Sumatra could trigger further tragedies.
Using rainfall predictions from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Alvisyahrin highlighted the heightened risk of flooding and landslides, particularly in Aceh.
"The estimated rainfall intensity is quite high in Aceh at the beginning of January. We must remain vigilant and prepared for new floods and even potential flash floods," Alvisyahrin said on Saturday, December 27, 2025.
Scale of potential follow-up disasters
Alvisyahrin noted that the scale of potential new flooding is likely to be smaller than the massive floods that hit the region last November, as much of the logging debris has already moved downstream.
"However, upstream areas remain vulnerable to new landslides due to already sensitive and deteriorating environmental conditions," he added.
The lecturer emphasized that the most at-risk areas can only be determined using disaster risk maps maintained by the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) and local disaster agencies (BPBD).
Urgent mitigation measures
Alvisyahrin urged the government to take immediate action to prevent recurring floods and landslides. Key steps include clearing remaining logging debris and building materials along rivers near settlements, removing mud sedimentation that has reached house rooftops, and dredging river channels to maintain proper water flow.
"If water discharge increases again but is blocked by debris and sedimentation, the rivers will overflow, causing further damage," he warned.
He also stressed the need to prioritize cleanup around areas designated for temporary housing, given the high rainfall forecasts and limited time for preparation.
Temporary housing developments
The government has already begun constructing temporary housing in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra. Abdul Muhari, Head of the Data, Information, and Communication Center at BNPB, confirmed that these homes are being built in safer areas to reduce the risk of future disasters.
"We are optimizing land use in areas not prone to similar disasters," Abdul said on Friday, December 26, 2025.
In Aceh alone, temporary housing will be constructed in 10 districts or cities, including Pidie, where 12 units will be built with independent funding.
The disaster's toll continues to rise. As of Thursday, December 25, 2025, the total number of casualties in the three provinces reached 1,135, up from 1,129 the previous day. Aceh reported the highest number of fatalities with 503, followed by North Sumatra with 371 and West Sumatra with 261.
Additionally, 173 people remain missing, according to BNPB data.
– Novali Panji Nugroho contributed to tthe writing of this article.
Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2076508/experts-warn-of-follow-up-flood-risks-in-flood-hit-sumatr