Hariz Baharudin, Jakarta – National events planned for Indonesia's new capital, Nusantara, have been delayed or scaled back after construction deadlines were missed, even as efforts to woo investors for the mega project continue.
While the US$35 billion (S$47 billion) construction of Nusantara will not cease, it is likely that the pace of it will be adjusted, experts told The Straits Times, highlighting doubts about when the new city will eventually be able to replace Jakarta.
On July 15, Indonesia's President Joko Widodo flew to the United Arab Emirates to persuade investors to put their money into the project, the latest in a series of pitch meetings he has held with world and business leaders.
Indonesia has said that the state will finance only 20 per cent of Nusantara's total costs, with the rest coming from the private sector.
The sales pitch came after Mr Widodo, or Jokowi, announced on July 8 that he would be postponing the relocation of his office to Nusantara, originally planned for that month, due to missed deadlines for some critical infrastructure.
"If the water is ready, if the electricity is ready, if the place is ready, we will move there," Mr Widodo said.
On July 16, he cited heavy rains as the cause for the delay. "That's normal for big projects," he said.
A planned ceremony to celebrate Indonesia's 79th Independence Day in Nusantara will carry on, albeit on a smaller scale.
The arrangement, announced in June, was that Mr Widodo and President-elect Prabowo Subianto would together preside over a ceremony in Nusantara, while Vice-President Ma'ruf Amin and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka would lead one in Jakarta.
"Some sort of ceremony will definitely be held in Nusantara on August 17, but Mr Widodo has already had to climb down from his earlier ambitious plans," said Ms Julia Lau, co-coordinator for the Indonesia Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
"This was a clear recognition that Nusantara would not be ready to host a large-scale event."
The ceremony in Nusantara is likely to be a simple affair that will be a symbolic gesture, said Mr Poltak Partogi Nainggolan, senior researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) in Indonesia.
A Nusantara leader has said the decision to commemorate the archipelago's independence in two locations was to pay homage to Jakarta, and to stage a "ceremony of transition" to the new capital.
Initial plans for the celebrations were of a much larger scale. Officials said in January that thousands of government employees would attend the series of events for the celebrations.
Meanwhile, the October swearing-in ceremony for Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran will be held in the Senayan legislative complex in Jakarta, instead of in Nusantara as previously announced.
A series of other speed bumps has affected the project, which seeks to turn more than 2,000 sq km in East Kalimantan, more than twice the size of Singapore, into a smart, green city over the next three decades.
On June 3, Mr Widodo's office announced that he had accepted the resignations of Mr Bambang Susantono, a former official at the Asian Development Bank who was heading the project, and his deputy, Mr Dhony Rahajoe, an architect and former real estate developer.
They have been succeeded by Public Works and Housing Minister Basuki Hadimuljono and Vice-Minister of Agrarian and Spatial Planning Raja Juli Antoni.
The upcoming city is due to have running water and electricity by the end of July, according to the authorities, but not all experts are convinced.
Some, like Dr Irman G. Lanti from the Padjadjaran University in Indonesia, said there are significant development backlogs, and it will take longer than initially planned for the city to function fully as the nation's new capital. Officials have said Nusantara will take about two or three decades to complete.
"The recent downpour is merely an excuse for the delays. The challenges of building a megacity in the region are much more significant than the weather," he said.
Critics have raised concerns about the chosen site, which is in dense jungle terrain, susceptible to flooding and other natural hazards. It is also home to indigenous communities, who may be displaced.
Dr Irman added that the lack of public consultation in the planning of Nusantara from the start has contributed to its problems.
Another factor is the lack of funding. Private companies have not been biting, and in the hopes of boosting investment, Mr Widodo signed a new law in mid-July that will allow investors to apply for land right permits of up to 190 years. Previously, there was no such law allowing investors to have long-term land rights.
He has also been pitching Nusantara to several world leaders over the past year, including former Singapore prime minister Lee Hsien Loong and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, as well as several heads of state at the Group of 20 summit in India in November.
The meetings have resulted in dozens of letters of intent, but no notable signed deals so far.
"With the reluctance of foreign investors to commit to Nusantara, delays are to be expected. Any large-scale project, especially for infrastructure, can expect delays. But it is likely that Nusantara's second and subsequent phases will be further delayed," said Ms Lau.
The project is planned to span five phases. It is currently in its first phase.
All the observers ST spoke to said it is unlikely that Nusantara will be shelved or canceled, considering how much money and effort has gone into it.
They added, however, that any expectations of it being ready soon will have to be managed. While Mr Widodo will continually push for it, there is no guarantee that Mr Prabowo, who was elected in the Feb 14 presidential elections, will prioritise its development.
This is especially as the incoming administration has its own special projects that it wants to focus on. Mr Poltak cited Mr Prabowo's plan to provide free lunch for all children in Indonesia, which Reuters said is expected to cost 71 trillion rupiah (S$5.9 billion) in 2025.
"When Mr Prabowo is president, he will more fully understand the cost that Nusantara is putting on Indonesia. That, combined with the cost of his programme, will mean that he will have to make tough decisions about where to spend the money," he said
Dr Irman said that Mr Widodo has gone "all out" to salvage the project, but it is doubtful if his efforts can make a difference.
"There is a lack of confidence over the sustainability of the project beyond Jokowi's administration, which is merely a few months away (from exiting)," he said.