Nivell Rayda, Medan, Indonesia – It was Sunday morning in December, but there were hardly any customers stopping by at Mdm Teti Gusyana's store, one of the few remaining snack shops still standing in Pasar Bengkel, a once bustling town on the eastern coast of Sumatra that has become increasingly deserted.
The town used to be a popular transit hub for travellers passing through the East Trans-Sumatra road, particularly on weekends when many city dwellers sought to escape the hustle and bustle of Indonesia's third largest city, Medan, some 50km away.
But that all changed almost overnight when a 69km toll road, which bypassed the area, opened in 2019. The town of 4,000 people was hit hard by the sudden decline of travellers, leaving behind rows of shuttered shops and empty restaurants.
"I haven't sold anything today," the 43-year-old told CNA, pointing to a row of traditional snacks and sweets on top of her shop's wooden displays, many of which had been collecting dust for weeks.
Mdm Teti added that in time, she too might have to call it quits and close the shop which had been in her family for three generations.
But the same toll road proved to be a boon to people like Mdm Rosi Pakpahan, who mans a parking space in one of the busiest districts of Pematang Siantar City.
The existing toll road has already slashed travel time from Medan to her hometown by almost an hour. Work is underway to expand the toll network which will further reduce the time needed to make the 127km journey. The new section is set to open this year.
"I hope the new toll road will mean more visitors (to Pematang Siantar) and more cars parking on my space," the 57-year-old told CNA.
The toll road was the brainchild of Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who is widely known for his massive infrastructure drive across the country.
In Sumatra, more than 1,000km of toll roads have been built since Mr Widodo, better known as Jokowi, became president in 2014.
The president's focus on building infrastructures, as well as his many social welfare programmes and subsidies, are some of the main reasons why Mr Jokowi – who is barred by the country's Constitution from running for another term at this year's presidential election – enjoyed an approval rating of 80 per cent.
But analysts say the incumbent's high approval rating does not mean Indonesia's 204 million voters will throw their support behind a candidate Mr Jokowi seemingly endorses or one who has a similar leadership style.
Voters, pundits say, could even vote for an opposition figure.
Although there are other factors at play, analysts say just how well Mr Jokowi's infrastructure and welfare programmes have been received by the public could be one of the main factors behind how voters in Sumatra will behave in the Valentine's Day election.
Home to 60 million people, Sumatra is Indonesia's second-most populous island after Java and is seen as one of the key battlegrounds in Indonesian politics. The 10 provinces in Sumatra have a total of 127 out of 580 seats in Indonesia's national parliament.
Some ethnically and politically diverse provinces like Lampung and North Sumatra have been considered as bellwether areas, often mirroring exactly with how national voters behave during previous elections.
A three-horse race complicates matters
During the previous two elections, Mr Jokowi had to fight hard to win the hearts and minds of voters in Sumatra, a massive 470,000 square km spear-shaped island which separates the Indian Ocean and the Malacca Strait.
In 2014, Mr Jokowi lost in four out of 10 provinces in Sumatra to his then-rival, retired Army general, Prabowo Subianto.
Five years later, when Mr Jokowi squared off with Mr Prabowo for the second time, the president fared even worse, losing six Sumatran provinces, including Aceh and West Sumatra where the retired general enjoyed a landslide win of more than 85 per cent.
Even in North Sumatra, a province known for being a stronghold for Mr Jokowi's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the incumbent was only able to secure a narrow victory of 52 per cent in the 2019 election.
But once Mr Jokowi's infrastructure drive kicked into high gear during his second term in office, the president's popularity in Sumatra began to soar.
"If Jokowi can run for a third term, he might win again," said Dr Alfian of Aceh's Malikussaleh University.
Indonesia today has three presidential candidates for this year's election: former Jakarta governor, Mr Anies Baswedan; Mr Prabowo and former Central Java governor, Mr Ganjar Pranowo.
Since the 2019 election, Mr Prabowo has joined the president's cabinet as defence minister and chosen Mr Jokowi's son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his running mate.
Mr Jokowi's party, PDI-P and three other parties in the president's ruling coalition are throwing their weight against Mr Ganjar, who many say has a similar leadership style as Mr Jokowi.
Meanwhile, Mr Anies, who is being supported by among others: conservative Islamic groups and members of the opposition, is riding on a campaign platform which promises change to the way the current government is running the country.
The changing political landscape is making Sumatra a harder place to predict for this election, analysts say, with areas which have historically voted for Jokowi could go on to support either Mr Prabowo or Mr Ganjar.
Meanwhile, the areas which in the past voted for Mr Prabowo could either stay faithful to the retired general or pivot to Mr Anies.
According to the latest nationwide polls, Mr Prabowo is currently leading with a vote of more than 40 per cent, followed by Mr Ganjar at around 25 per cent and Mr Anies at around 22 per cent. The rest are undecided.
There has been no specific poll which looks at who people will vote for in Sumatra.
Infrastructure splitting Sumatran voters
Empirically speaking, the way Jokowi's programmes have been received in certain areas could be a deciding factor.
In North Sumatra's Pasar Bengkel, which is slowly turning into a ghost town because of the president's infrastructure drive, residents will likely vote for Mr Anies.
"People here are suffering. Many people here want change," snack vendor Mdm Teti said, in a thinly veiled reference to Mr Anies's campaign platform.
Historically, the people of Pasar Bengkel voted for Mr Prabowo in the 2019 election, Mdm Teti continued. Many, however, changed their allegiance when the retired general decided to pick Mr Gibran as his running mate.
Meanwhile in Pematang Siantar, one of the many PDI-P strongholds in North Sumatra and a city which has benefited greatly from Mr Jokowi's infrastructure drive, residents say they want to see candidates who can carry out the president's policies.
Mdm Rosi said her family has been the beneficiary of many of Jokowi's programmes like cash aid for the poor and education subsidies. The mother of two said she will vote for Mr Ganjar in the upcoming election.
"Once Jokowi is no longer president, many people will be sad. I hope the next president can be like Jokowi," she said.
When asked why she would vote for Mr Ganjar and not Mr Prabowo, she said it boils down to the candidates' personalities.
"Ganjar... I like that he is casual and he looks like he can lead. Prabowo... I don't like his brash style," Mdm Rosi said.
But Dr Dimpos Manalu, a lecturer at Medan's Nommensen University said Mr Prabowo also has a good chance of securing a win in much of Sumatra.
"Prabowo is a candidate who is running for the third time... So he has high name recognition among our voters," Dr Dimpos told CNA, adding that Prabowo running with Gibran also has its advantages.
"Gibran can be viewed as an extension of Jokowi. Jokowi's approval rating is high. This is a big capital for them to have."
Other factors at play
But partnering with Mr Gibran might be a double-edged sword for Mr Prabowo, particularly in Sumatran areas which have not seen much infrastructure development or where people voted against Mr Jokowi in the last two elections.
Aceh, a province in the northern tip of Sumatra which had to rebuild itself from decades of conflict and a 2004 tsunami which claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people, only saw its first toll road opened in 2023.
The 37km toll road, spanning from Sultan Iskandar Muda airport to Suelimeum, currently only slashed travel time to the provincial capital Banda Aceh by about 10 minutes. There is work to expand the network by another 38km, set to be completed sometime this year.
Mr Rizky Maunandar, a cellphone shop manager in Banda Aceh said economic development in his province seemed stagnant during Mr Jokowi's terms.
"I want a new leader," the 32-year-old told CNA adding that he will vote for Mr Anies who promises to change how the country is run.
"Anies for me and others offers a new hope and a new style in leadership."
Another Banda Aceh resident, Mr Asnawi Is, said although he was previously a Prabowo supporter, during this year's election, he will throw his support for Mr Anies.
"Prabowo used to be an opposition. But then he joined (Jokowi's cabinet). So he is inconsistent. I no longer like him," the 34-year-old cook told CNA.
"I like Anies. I like his style... his Islamic way of life."
Dr Alfian, a political expert at Aceh's Malikussaleh University said religion has always played a huge factor in Aceh, a province where 98 per cent of its 5.3 million population are Muslims and one that has adopted the Islamic Sharia as its local regulations and bylaws.
"Aceh people will look at a candidate's religious credentials, intellect and leadership style. In Aceh, if you are good in reading the Quran, and put (Islamic verses) in your speeches, people will be drawn to you," the expert told CNA referring to Islam's holy book.
Dr Alfian, who goes by one name, predicted that the majority of people in Aceh will favour Mr Anies, an academic of Arab descent who is supported by conservative Islamic groups. Mr Anies is also partnering with Mr Muhaimin Iskandar, the chairman of the Islam-based National Awakening Party.
Mr Ganjar has also chosen as his running mate an Islamic scholar, Mr Mahfud MD, to balance out the former's image as a secular nationalist. Mr Mahfud was the country's coordinating minister for politics, legal and security before he resigned on Feb 1.
Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran both do not have strong religious credentials and the ticket is supported by a coalition of nine parties which are mostly secular nationalists.
But this fact is not a deal breaker for 23-year-old Mr Teuku Imam Al Sahar, who said he will vote for Prabowo in the upcoming election.
"I think Prabowo is more action than talk. I think Prabowo has shown himself to be a good leader," the university student told CNA.
Mr Imam said he is not a big fan of the president but Mr Imam is willing to sideline the fact that Mr Prabowo is running with Mr Jokowi's 34-year-old son.
"Many fear that Gibran will be influenced by Jokowi. But I think it is important to look at the presidential candidates first then weigh in on his running mate," he said. "A leader can direct his lieutenant. Not the other way around."
What the candidates are doing in Sumatra
Even before the campaign season started in late November, the three candidates vying for the presidency and their running mates have been touring the island extensively.
Mr Anies and Mr Muhaimin, for example, have so far visited five Sumatran provinces since August while Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran have been making trips to Sumatra since April. Mr Prabowo visited the island both as defence minister and as a presidential candidate.
Meanwhile, Mr Ganjar has been meeting his supporters in several PDI-P strongholds in Sumatra since May while his running mate Mr Mahfud visited Aceh on the first day of campaigning on Nov 28.
The candidates have been mostly preaching to the choir by meeting their respective supporters, analysts noted. To win the hearts and minds of ordinary voters, extra efforts are needed.
Dr Dimpos of Nommensen University said that endorsements from well-known and well-respected local figures are important in wooing undecided voters.
This is one reason why at the sideline of their campaign trails, the candidates have been attending traditional ceremonies or visiting schools and orphanages run by local religious leaders.
The political expert said the local campaign teams of each ticket should also go beyond organising rallies and printing out pamphlets and other campaign paraphernalia and drum up support for their candidates by conducting door-to-door campaigning.
"They should be able to promote their candidates' personal qualities as well as their vision and mission to the masses," he said.
Dr Dimpos, however, warned that as a candidate who is supported by the sitting president, Mr Prabowo could have an unfair advantage over other hopefuls.
In December, Mr Jokowi began distributing cash aid to farmers across the country who were affected by the El Nino weather phenomenon, which has resulted in failed crops and low harvest seasons. The government is earmarking 7.5 trillion rupiah (US$484 million) for the scheme which will benefit more than 18 million people.
"Cash aids have long been used by the ruler to drum up public support as an election draws near and they are effective," Dr Dimpos said, questioning the timing of the scheme.
"Whoever wins is not important. What is more important is whether this election will lead to the improvement of our democracy or lead to its deterioration."
Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-presidential-election-sumatra-401370